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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/24/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

TEX (02/24/03; 23:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98346)
Gold SPAM
Well........it finally happened to me today. I received my first e-mail SPAM trying to sell Gold. Does that mean Gold is finally making it into the "mainstream" once and for all?
YIKES!
Thanks but no thanks. I'll continue to get my yellow metal from MK.

Black Blade (02/24/03; 23:41:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98345)
Asian Markets Tank
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Asian markets are awash in red on concerns of N. Korean missile test coupled with ugly day on Wall Street.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (02/24/03; 23:22:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98344)
Cold sends natural gas price up 30%
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030224.wxgass/BNStory/Business

Snippit:

Matthew Foss, a senior economist at the Canadian Energy Research Institute, said the situation is "worse now" than in the winter of 2000-01, when a record runup in gas prices prompted widespread industry shutdowns and as much as quadrupled the cost of residential heating in parts of North America. "There isn't going to be enough gas to go around throughout this next winter," he said. Although supply was tight in 2000, there was at least some chance for relief as producers revved up drilling activity and began pumping more gas to meet demand, Mr. Foss said. No such relief is near now, he said. Petroleum producers that were whacked by a crash in gas prices in the second half of 2001 were leery of increasing activity until last month. As a result, major increases in supply will be many months in coming. Tim Evans, a senior energy analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York, agreed. "The frightening answer is it's going to take six to nine months before we start to see more supply." As a result, Mr. Foss explained, gas supplies will remain tight through the traditional recovery period in the spring and the fall and will enter the high-demand winter season at insufficient levels. Mr. Evans said that quickly shrinking U.S. inventories are on track to hit a historical low before this winter is out. "We're on a pace where we can be looking at a number like 600 billion cubic feet," Mr. Evans said.


Black Blade: That's how I read it too except I think below 600 bcf is a real possibility. Hedge your position with a load of Gold and Silver. The last energy crisis tipped the US economy into the current recession and now it threatens to go critical into a "New Great Depression".



Black Blade (02/24/03; 22:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98343)
Heating Oil Closes at 23-Year High as Cold Weather Spurs Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Gas%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=E8reDz4MPlitpbhWR

Snippit:

New York, Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Heating-oil futures rose to a record before closing at a 23-year high, as below-normal temperatures spurred demand for dwindling supplies. Heating demand in the Northeast, the fuel's biggest market, will be 17 percent above average through March 3, according to forecaster Weather Derivatives. Inventories along the East Coast are down 36 percent from a year ago after five months of frigid weather kept furnaces running from Baltimore to Boston. ``Even with the prices as high as they are, people are biting the bullet'' and refilling storage tanks, said Ed Taft, general manager at Auth Fuels Inc. in East Longmeadow, Massachusetts.


Black Blade: I can't blame people for "topping off the tank" now as more bitterly cold temps are on the way. Prices may not come down much either. One point to remember is that refiners are still refining heating oil when they should be prepping for the switch over for reformulated gasoline production to build stores for the summer driving season. The high price for heating oil and other distillates have not spurred as much fuel switching as would normally be expected. All petroleum products are priced much higher and will likely rise much higher. Refineries will eventually have to shutdown for maintenance and that bottleneck will add to the havoc in the energy market. Scratch any hope of "economic recovery". It's going to get very "interesting".



Mr Gresham (02/24/03; 22:48:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98342)
Dollar Bill
http://www.k-doe.com/
I know you're working on some heavy stuff, and for a few days now I've wanted to thank you for sticking your neck out back there and sharing some of your personal details.

I've included the link in honor of you, and you patiently living with such a burden, and remember what the late Ernie sang in that wonderful one-hit: "Satan should be her name -- mother-in-law, mother-in-law -- To me they're 'bout the same -- mother-in-law... "

The worst that's happened to me was the first m.i.l. getting drunk before we arrived for Christmas and then passing out on the couch, sprawled across ME. When I tried to move her and get up, she took a swing at me. We ended up pulling all the presents we could identify from under the tree, and hightailing it outta there.

(The other one wasn't as bad: just that I broke a tooth on her blahhhhh tuna casserole -- how do ya do that on tuna, huh? -- an hour before our flight left, and so I was in aerial pain for the next eight hours. Good thing it happened in the era before "real airport security" because I was screaming in some foreign language, I think.)


Black Blade (02/24/03; 22:34:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98341)
Gold Hill

I saw a report tonight about the dire situation for the states (Moneyline perhaps?). The Governor of Vermont crowed that they had set aside cash for a "rainy day fund". If true then there is a fine example of what should have been done. Most states spent like drunken sailors during the good times and now they will raise taxes and cut services (layoffs) just when the people can least afford it. It's the old "Ant and Grasshopper" scenario that I mentioned time and again concerning the People's Republik of Kalifornia during the energy crisis. People never learn.

BTW, I should pull out a buffalo steak to defrost or crock pot some stew meat. Sounds good, but I guess too late now so pasta for me. Cheers!

- Black Blade


Black Blade (02/24/03; 22:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98340)
EOG Resources' Papa on Natural Gas Prices (Transcript)
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Gas%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=E0CDt_xiopyZSZRLP&ao=19432251

Snippit:

ASSAAD: To talk about the outlook for natural gas producers is EOG Resources CEO Mark Papa.

Mark, we thank you for joining us this morning. As we were talking, gas prices have risen this winter. Where do you see them going from here?

PAPA: Suzy, that's a good question. As you know, March gas prices are now over $7.00. And I expect because of the amount of draw-down that we've had this winter due to the colder-than-average winter that in fact we may see gas prices somewhere in the range of between $6 and $7 perhaps for the next four or five months, at least.

ASSAAD: So certainly, this is going to continue. No signs of prices leveling off at all?

PAPA: No. I think what we've got in front of us is a ``perfect storm'' on the North American gas supply side, such that the three sources of supply for North American gas, the U.S., Canada and potentially Mexico, and all three of them are breaking down. U.S. gas production is down 5 percent year over year; Canadian production for the first time in about 15 years we think will be lower in '03 than '02, and Mexico has begun importing amounts of gas from the U.S. in quantities that no one expected just a while ago. So you're seeing a real supply constraint scenario play out as far as North American gas.

I really believe that in '04 and '05, we'll continue to have a stressed supply scenario in North America for natural gas.

You know, the trend for the whole industry, as well as EOG, is that the U.S. finding and development costs have indeed risen over the last five years. But that's been dramatically outpaced by the increase in the gas price. And I think what it shows is it's just getting harder and harder, i.e., more expensive, to find gas in North America. And so what I think will happen is, you'll see a finding and development cost in North America be in the range of about $1.50 to $1.60, but you're going to see abnormally high gas prices that will certainly give us a margin where we'll generate a very good internal rate of return.



Black Blade: As I have been saying for the last couple of years – "A Perfect Storm". We had our chance to prepare and yet we squandered the opportunity. It's going to be an interesting year with much higher sustained energy prices hitting the North American economies like a ton of bricks. I talked to a couple of former clients in the NatGas business this morning about the NatGas situation and they concur. Prices are going much higher and supply will continue to decline perhaps for several years. "Interesting Times"



Gandalf the White (02/24/03; 22:20:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 98339)
Todays NY action was an indication of things to come in GOLD !
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,P
LOVE this chart !
Here is the start of SPOT and SPIKE's Adventure to the MOON!
Hold on to your hats and the YELLOW !
<;-)

R Powell (02/24/03; 22:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98338)
Dollar Bill
I'm glad you are still here. Judging from the tone of your last post, addressed in part to me, I'll ask that you please reread my last post to you concerning my thoughts on GATA. I believe you have many voices combined with my name.

I believe the your main complaint is not an uncommon one, in that you, as do we all, live as best you can in an imperfect world which you view as having come close to self-destruction many times. This is story of history and I'm sure many who lived what we read would say that the world DID self-destruct. There but for the grace of God and the great work of many men... Yes, of course, you are right.

Each and every one one of those men was born into the same troubled world and lived a life directly influenced by those conditions. Desperate times call for desperate actions and only such times can breed heroes. The current situation is no different. Troubled times and still evolving, so, as always, each of us has to decide how to deal with the situation as we perceive it.

I believe many are trying to do just this. GATA, in particular, believes that one of the current disruptive or distructive forces that face the world in our time is the manipulation or control of the money supply. Given this control implies a power over man and government. Such power, held by ANYONE is a direct threat to freedom and liberty. I can no longer speak for GATA but, myself, I would like to see as honest a monetary system as possible. I do not think the old gold standard is still a viable alternative and have never advocated its return, except perhaps in a hybred form? I do not think ALL debt can or should be removed from any monetary system. But enough of my ideas..and back to the issue that so bothers you..

When anyone (GATA included) perceives something that seems wrong (such as a monetary system) whatever is perceived is the outgrowth of the past history of which you speak. As such, of course it is an evolving changling of whatever system once existed and of course many great men have endeavored to improve the system, defend the system and, at times, just try to maintain it, that is, keep it alive. Good changes are not always the result of change and constant efforts are needed over time. How now is GATA any different than so many other people and organisations working for positive changes to our world?

I don't believe any on this forum are cheering for or looking forward to any monetary crisis or collapse with glee. Some of us, however, see elements in motion that many cause just such a choas. We don't wish it, but it may happen. What would you have us do? Remain silent, say nothing and hope the problem goes away?

Or, if we speak out, how now to at least arouse others to investigate our warnings when they dismiss the warnings as the ravings of nutcases or the delusional wishes of malcontents. The possible crisis is not going to bring happy news. It can not be confirmed with glad tiddings. Its unfolding will be confirmed with BAD news which will have to be shouted out as proof that the threat exists and is happening. Record bankruptcies is not happy news but needs to be pointed out to those who are still singing "happy days are just around the next corner" (or next quarter). Perhaps some prophetised future occurances that are now indeed happening will have to be pointed out to arouse some naysayers. Unfortunately, the confirmation of some dire predictions like a tanking dollar and a falling equities market are not pleasant economic indicators to SHOUT about but, how else to warn about the real possibility of the granddaddy of all depressions. How to warn of an out-of-control fiat currency system which survives only on increasing debt?
How can any be warned without dire predictions?
How does one cry WOLF when everyone chooses to be deaf, or worse, thinks the warnings are wishes!
This is my position and I believe it is a real possiblity that awful times are close at hand. You'll have to forgive me if I attempt to warn my friends. Don't worry, except for a very few, they're not listening. The grasshoppers play on.
Rich



Gold Hill (02/24/03; 22:12:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98336)
state spending Black Blade post 98292
The states have indeed been spending like drunken sailors. In OR where I'm at,there was a ballot measure last month (measure 28)to increase the income tax. It was defeated. Now we are being spanked. The state patrol is now on a 22 hour shift. No staters on I-5 between the hours of 4 to 6 in the AM. Some schools in the Rogue Valley have cut Monday from the school week. The money is there, the state wants to say "bad dog,no biscuit". Oregon is now talking about dipping into tobacco settlement money. I do believe that the states are going to play a much larger role in what is going on in this country than they have in the past.
Gold around $350 is a bargain, silver is cheap!! Contact the host of this forum and get you some.

Blade, had an elk state tonight, pan fried taters and onions and green beans for my veggie. It don't get no better than that!!

mikal (02/24/03; 22:09:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98335)
@HumblePie
Yeah. And I can think of at least 100 more just from the last contest. At least there's newbies, mainstays and nags like me.

Black Blade (02/24/03; 22:01:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98334)
Nymex Natural Gas Soars Record 38% With Cold Slashing Supplies
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/nrg2/topnew/enews.cgi?ptitle=Gas%20News&touch=1&T=enews_story.ht&s=EGw_Uq0LfTUB4IBXG

Snippit:

New York, Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas futures soared 38 percent, the biggest daily gain in 13 years of trading, because more cold Northeast and Midwest weather in the next few weeks may slash supplies in storage to the lowest ever, analysts said. Below-average temperatures this winter in the eastern and central U.S. have cut inventories by 43 percent from a year earlier. U.S. gas production is falling, and prices of alternative fuels such as heating oil are surging. ``We've moved into a new era of gas prices,'' Larry Nichols, chief executive officer of Devon Energy Corp., the third-biggest U.S. gas producer, said on a conference call with analysts. ``The way storage is being depleted, we are going to see strong prices the rest of the year.''

Lowest Inventories

Gas inventories fell 203 billion cubic feet, or 15 percent, to 1.168 trillion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 14, the Energy Department said Thursday. Supplies dropped to a record 697 billion cubic feet in mid-April 1996. The second-lowest was 738 billion cubic feet in late March 2001. ``It dawned on everybody that we are actually on track to threaten 600 or 700 billion cubic feet in storage'' by the end of March, said Guy Gleichmann, senior trader at U.S. Investment Group in Miami. ``They're worried about getting below the all-time low.''

Production Declines

Stored supplies, kept in aquifers, salt caverns and depleted oil reservoirs thousands of feet underground, may fall to near a record by the end of March, typically considered the end of the U.S. heating season, analysts said. Production last year fell by 450 billion cubic feet, or 2.3 percent, from 2001, the Energy Department has said. ``Now that they're getting real demand, people are wondering how they're going to counter with production down,'' Gleichmann said. Surging gas prices may boost Americans' heating bills more than forecast. A typical Midwest household will spend $762 this winter for gas heat, up 28 percent from $596 last winter, the Energy Department said earlier this month.


Inventories Tumble

Supplies will fall to about 738 trillion cubic feet by the end of March should weekly withdrawals from storage be slightly less than the five-year average of 74 billion cubic feet, said Marshall Steeves, an energy analyst at Refco Group Ltd. in New York. ``Natural gas has never stabilized above $4 or $5 for longer than this,'' Gleichmann said. ``People are already worried about beginning next winter with a record-low amount in storage.''


Black Blade: The sleepers are beginning to awaken. From my latest calculations we will be extremely lucky to finish the heating season above 550 bcf by end of March and we could still see some withdrawal in April. Also, drill rig counts have not really recovered and there is no possible way that we will be able to produce enough NatGas for next winter even if every available rig is working 24/7. We had our chance and we blew it. We had record drilling two years ago and only had a net gain of 2% production. If this summer is normal or warmer we are dead in the water especially with less hydro-power due to drought conditions and environmental regulations for water flows. It's going to get very "interesting" this year as I have pointed out over the last couple of years. No "economic recovery" this year or next – that's a lock! We reap what we sow.




Humble Pie (02/24/03; 21:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98333)
Where is Belgian
A day without him is like a day without sunshine.

ElGordo (02/24/03; 21:46:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 98332)
China market is up!
S Korea down 3%

ElGordo (02/24/03; 21:45:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98331)
Asia is a sea of Red
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u
N Korea missile test hitting Asia hard.

silvercollector (02/24/03; 21:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98330)
Nikkei down 236 presently...
... sitting at 8300 and change.

Correct me if I am wrong, 8200 and change is the low.

physicalman (02/24/03; 21:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98329)
Dollar Bill, R Powell, Daniel Druff
Daniel Druff: The silver recycling % come from some contacts i have at Fuji and Kodak but cannot give you direct quotes or links so as always DYODD but i have been in the physicals since the 70's. Also include some of my estimates from other contacts at photo processers and refiners and i must keep their confidence to me. I would also like to note that in my 35 years in physical gold/silver have never seen ag.supplies/ability to deliver so tight? Hmmm?
Dollar Bill I will give a reply to your post as soon as i have the time. I agree with some of what you say but it will take much more time than i have right now to respond to your whole post properly so will do so when i have the proper amount of free time, thanks.
R. Powell Remember when we talked awhile back about how i was in aviation (plus some other stuff) Am in Texas on shuttle recovery mission. There are a total of 30 helo's plus 6 fixed wing and 2500 ground personnal on the job down here now (pretty big operation) Gotta get some sleep.
Gold and silver-get more while you can!


R Powell (02/24/03; 21:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 98328)
ElGordo
Thanks for the link. How about that, digital color prints on silver halide paper. Finest kind!
There are many analysts, two of whom are regular weekly contributors to "Consensus", who have been, for years, trying to sell the idea that digital photography means the end of the silver market. It might be nice to dream of a world where everyone can afford digital and the computer to view it but somehow I've wondered if this is the top priority of that part of the world's population that hopefully will eventually achieve that prosperity. Will they never buy cheaper cameras and film but, instead, go from not having any camera to having a digital one? And now we find that even digital requires silver halide if a print is desired. Thanks
Rich

ElGordo (02/24/03; 21:11:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 98327)
Interest on the public debt: $131.4 billion for 4 months Oct-Jan
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A62494-2003Feb24?language=printer
The government has run up a deficit of $97.6 billion in the first four months of the 2003 budget year, a reversal from the corresponding period last year when a small surplus was produced.

The latest budget figures, released Monday by the Treasury Department, highlighted the government's deteriorating fiscal situation, where record high budget deficits are forecast this year and next.

The whopping deficit posted from the beginning of the 2003 fiscal year in October through January, the most recent month available, stood in stark contrast to the $8.4 billion surplus posted for that period last year.

Revenues are down by 8.1 percent this budget year from last year, to $615.3 billion, which reflects in part lower tax revenues from the sagging economy.

Individual income tax payments totaled $306.5 billion, a 9.4 percent drop from last year. Corporate tax payments plunged by 47.4 percent to $34.2 billion.

Spending for the first four months of the 2003 budget year totaled $712.9 billion, representing a 7.8 percent increase from the corresponding period in 2002.

The biggest spending categories so far this budget year were: programs of the Health and Human Services Department, including Medicare and Medicaid, $169.9 billion; Social Security, $168.4 billion; interest on the public debt, $131.4 billion; and military, $123.4 billion.


sector (02/24/03; 21:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98326)
U.S. economist urges reform, weaker yen
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030225wo14.htm
Rieko Mohara / Daily Yomiuri Staff Writer

Allan Meltzer, professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University, served from 1986 until last month as an honorary advisor to the Bank of Japan, helping the central bank's studies on financial policy.

The economist worked on the U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers from 1988 to 1989 and led a U.S. congressional commission studying reform of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund from 1999 to 2000. In November, Meltzer published the first volume of a history of the U.S. Federal Reserve covering the period from 1913 to 1951, which is seen as a definitive biography of the institution that analyzes its policies and actions in depth.

In an interview with The Daily Yomiuri, Meltzer discussed current Japanese financial problems and the economy's future prospects.


The Daily Yomiuri: The Japanese economy is facing two major problems--deflation and the disposal of nonperforming loans held by banks.

Meltzer: I would add a third--the structural problem. Japan needs to make a more flexible structure.

(Concerning deflation), I'm in favor of monetary targeting.

(Haruhiko) Kuroda, (former) vice minister for international affairs of the Finance Ministry, has come out publicly saying that he would like to see monetary expansion as he wrote in a Financial Times article in December.

That would help the economy to expand money growth and at the same time allow the exchange rate to depreciate.
+++++++++++++++++++++++

The US expert advice offered to the Japanese will quickly hasten the rise of gold bullion purchases by elderly Japanese who stubbornly expect that the government act to protect their yen savings values by NOT pushing for a weaker yen. If the BOJ executes the ballyhood devaluation, the elders will buy gold. This can be called one arm of a giant economic pincer with the other being the abyss of a US trade deficit.

The elders have $600 Billion in yen [Not real estate] to work with. The Iraq war, Nigerian, Venezuela, US gluttony driven, energy disaster is right around the corner as well as Black Blade has faithfully revealed to us here on this board.

There is to be a devaluation very soon in Japan and the US. Most likely it has already started. The war will act as an excuse for higher gold and those that feared lower gold will have been hosed once again by listening to conventional "Wisdom" instead of following logic.


silvercollector (02/24/03; 21:07:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98325)
N.Korea fired a 'missile' into the ocean between Japan and SK a couple hours ago.....
...is this a 'missile' test or is it testing something larger?

ElGordo (02/24/03; 20:54:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98324)
Saddam: I won't destroy missiles
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,902545,00.html
Saddam Hussein last night defied the US chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, when he refused to destroy his Samoud 2 missiles and called instead on US president George Bush to join him in a televised debate.

In an exclusive interview with the CBS news anchor, Dan Rather, to be screened in the US tomorrow night, the Iraqi leader denied that the Samouds violated UN mandates and said he would not destroy them.

knotakare (02/24/03; 20:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98323)
@R. Powell re Silver
I think that Silver will have to rise as the US fiat Dollar reaches a point of worthlesness, a piont of capitulation in the Dollar.

At the point of capitulation, is when the silver holder has his redemption, and possibly that may be at some point in the distant future. But the Dollar collapse is well underway, and the wise will buy silver and gold, to stand against the ravages of the John Law's and Allen Greenspan's that world history throws up for glorification. Many have worshipped these idol makers, but all that is left standing in their wake is gold and silver.

I like the lyrics from this song by Bono of U2:

"All I have is a red quitar, three chords and the truth,

all I have is a red quitar, the rest is up to you!"

I have a red guitar, made of gold and silver. So many will place their full faith in fiat dreams, and promises that will disapear in an instant.

I wish for golden dreams of truth, beauty, peace and freedom.







silvercollector (02/24/03; 20:34:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98322)
TheJuniorMiner
Macro Gold 'Things'
Good day Sir,

I've been on the 'gold trail' for 5 years; I'd like to think for a millisecond that I understand 'golden followers' of decades or more.

Each and every moment of each and every day I cheer for gold because I know it will 'win'. Each and every moment of each and every day I curse gold for placing shackles on my thinking, my life.

It is a price that must be paid to be a believer. Not to confuse God with gold or anything melodramatic, gold is a rock.

I once mined as a youngster in the bowels of the earth, some 1.5 miles below the earth to find large chunks of gold fused into granite; the 'gold' amongst the black is very attractive. A fine-tipped knife eases the soft metal from the 'rock-hard' granite.

As a kid the concept of retrieving this metal was not significant, as an adult I am at the cusp of understanding this lust, this passion for the 'yellow metal'. It is beyond description, really; it is a concept that grows just under your skin.

Gold in your hand represents security, it represents the sole salvation of society's mistakes; it is the holding, the currency, the reserve of FINAL resort.

During the next 3 or 4 years I will continue to flip-flop on my belief of gold; whether it will be valued at several hundreds of dollars an onze or several thousand dollars an onze but after 2006/2008, if I still walk this planet, I will value gold beyond 'market appraisal'.

In 2006/2008 the planet meets the 'double-cohort'. A lousy term, to be sure, but this date welcomes the arrival of the retirement of baby-boomers and the peak in oil production.

Not to be melodramatic (again) but it is difficult to argue the simple point that, simultaneously, oil cranked out of the ground hits it's theoretical all-time high and the age of the producing public 'turns over'.

Unless of course, 70 year olds convert 'cash' into energy.

So.............

I listen to gold supply deficits on one hand and JPM screwing us on the other and wonder, who is right?

Then clarity prevails and I say to myself, self, is it critically important that I understand the ultra-micro day-to-day wheelings and dealings?. I will continue to acquire the reserve, the commodity, the 'currency' of LAST resort, gold.

And as time travels, the dust will clear and I will understand, crystal clear.

Gold...get you some.


ElGordo (02/24/03; 20:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98321)
Hi Rich
http://wwwae.kodak.com/global/en/professional/products/papers/digitalColor/digitalIIIColorPaper.jhtml
A tid bit for you on digital prints.

Dollar Bill (02/24/03; 20:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98320)
Rich Powell and gata folks.
Greetings Rich,
I stopped back in to say I hope I didnt cast a cloud in your day. Without really getting in to it, let me end it with some positivity. Go back into the last century, there was a lot of global suffering and a depression that was really hurting people in huge ways all over. Lets go back further first, during ww1, it was gold standard, and family farms everywhere. Farm product prices collapsed and farmers and rural towns were really struggling. In fact, they didnt even have hardly any benefit from the so called roaring twenties as that decade went by. The gold system of that era
was flawed in numerous ways and very vulnerable to manipulation and abuse. At least one of those ways was posted here within the last two weeks. I didnt miss that part of someones post.
Evil did arise within the catholic church and hitler, moussalini and franco were the direct result of the efforts of catholic men trying to help thier church. Hey, I am sort of a catholic so dont think I havent researched this. It is no secret.
Point is, they were the men trying to do good of thier day,
but evil kicked in and you know some of the results.
My point is, how would America fight these guys if they were bound by some limited system of gold?
Debt was neccesary. The next evil that came along was, AGAIN, men trying to do good, communism, and evil stuck itself in there and took over. We can thank that economist for helping provide the neccesary convincing to get the west to agree to the Bretton Woods agreement. It did a lot of good and was the best that the brightest minds of the time could come up with. The cold war WAS REAL.
Deadly real. America stood up to tyranny and shed blood to try to help stop that awful tyranny from taking over the world as they were definately trying to do.
Does gata know any history? I dont see any evidence.
When france complained about the system in the early seventies, they made a fuss, broke America off the gold system that they were using, THEN, france realized that for many reasons, thier idea of a return to gold was a bad idea. They stopped making the fuss. And they didnt have any bright ideas on what else we all could try. Check this out, it is true.
A lot of hard work and thinking went into the convincing of the non communist countries to go along with the stableizing efforts of the eighties. And dont forget, Japan was at one point just about to rule the world with the yen.
If they were smart enough, at that point, they could have bought America.
But they didnt know enough about what they were doing, and they flubbed it up.
Those that dont know history think america has just been on top all the while. Some folks have no history of microsoft and just assume knowledge. There were many years where microsoft was completely vulnerable to other companies killing them off. They made less mistakes than thier competitors and that is why they made it to the top.
Same way, America just made less mistakes than other countries and had some pluses granted probably by the god.
The post cold war was no joke, and to get russia and china and other countries to end up sane, was a huge effort of many thinking men, and they managed, with the grace, to get us to this point. Of course I get pissed when gata just demonizes the American men who struggle to make a global economy work when it is not like they were given a blank slate and told to invent something from scratch.
Think about it, what kind of world are we in here?
Think about human nature, pointing stupid fingers and calling everything black and white and America Imperialistic is just poor thinking and analysis.
Then, painting yourself as hero's who are "rare" in life (RIGHT CHRIS?) And dismissing anyone who would question your
analysis, you insult anyone who says you are wrong.
YOU come up with a global system we all can operate under.
You dont even care a whit about the neccessary issues and offer nothing but well, I could just click over to fetch a qoute from yesterday from Chris, dismissing any reason to
concern yourself about REAL consequences. Or maybe it was even in your post Rich. Certainly sector and others dont give a brain cell to consider anything but what makes them feel like hero's.
Luckily, in spite of human nature everywhere, and our inability to somehow not make mistakes, the central bankers are trying to keep it working FOR GOOD REASONS even though they ALL wish somehow it could all be somehow simple and without danger.
Destructive men who do not think are everywhere.
Saddam is clearly one, but, the devil is one hell of an opponent in life, god can seemingly barely keep up with the devils chess moves.
Does that make any sense to you? The damn thing is more than willing and able to make use of any of us and we have to watch it in life. We cannot be blunder free, but it is in our interest to not be deaf. I am banging a gong here, I am saying right on your forum, I make errors, yes, and I am telling you gata guys, you are REALLY mispercieving this.
You refuse to look at the reasons things got this way.
The truth would get in the way of your heroic vision.
Tell me, are you proud of sector?
And how about that new guy who posted below, a gushing gata fan. Is that even fair to do that to that guy?
Is that education?
I am sorry to say, NO
Please, if you want to walk the world stage, you must first
grow up. Individually. The devil has way too big a piece of you.




R Powell (02/24/03; 20:27:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98319)
TheJuniorMiner
Your words......

"I've read Morgan, I've seen the production vs usage statistics and I have researched this a lot. Can anyone explain why they would predict a long term silver price of $5.00."

If the majority of the best analysts disregard entirely the idea that there might ever be a physical shortage of silver, then what future POS is predicted? Some analysts may have, from first being introduced to the silver market, become aware of and then indifferent to the supply/demand deficit. This will be the thirteenth year in a row yet the price does not go up. For some analysts, a small deficit is simply a characteristic of the silver market, much as sugar is often priced below the cost of production for years buy every decade or so the price of sugar skyrockets for a short time. Why? I imagine many may assume that the silver deficit is small in comparison to the unknown but seemingly unlimited supply. There is enough silver at cheap prices to last forever, isn't there? When do you think this might change?
Rich


Ag Mountain (2/24/03; 20:04:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98318)
Thanks leigh
Thinking about a regular dog and pony show I couldn't have made that connection on my own.

ElGordo (2/24/03; 19:57:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98317)
Dan Rather interview with Saddam
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/02/21/iraq/main541427.shtml
Iraq has until the end of the week to begin destroying the missiles, components and other related systems. If it fails to do so, that could give impetus to a draft U.N. resolution submitted Monday by the United States, Britain and Spain that would pave the way for war.

Rather says Saddam insisted in the interview that all the missiles he has, including the advanced al-Samouds, are within the limits set by the United Nations. "It's Saddam's contention, and he's sticking with it, that he's not going to destroy those missiles, not even going to promise to destroy them, because they are within U.N. guidelines.

Rather says he thinks Saddam knows that the time for the invasion is very near.



mikal (2/24/03; 19:46:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 98316)
@Leigh
Excellent post! Keep up the great work.

TheJuniorMiner (2/24/03; 19:44:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98315)
Silver


This was part of an annual report of one of the worlds largerst primary silver producers.

I've read Morgan, I've seen the production vs usage statistics and I have researched this a lot. Can anyone explain why they would predict a long term silver price of $5.00.


During the fourth quarter of 2002, the Company expects to adjust the carrying value of its Silver Valley operations down by $20-$24 million to give effect to a long term silver price of $5.00 per ounce and to reflect the economics associated with this lower long-term silver price assumption.

misetich (2/24/03; 19:33:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 98313)
EU, Arab League coordinate efforts to avoid war
http://www.irna.com/en/head/030224215700.ehe.shtml
Snip:

Brussels, Feb 24, IRNA -- EU foreign ministers met with the Arab
League chief Amr Moussa and Lebanese foreign minister Mahmoud Hammoud,
the current President of the League, in Brussels Monday afternoon to
discuss the Iraqi crisis.
''The discussion was a very important one. I think it symbolizes
our desire for working closely together, Europe and the Arab world on
a number of issues,'' Greek foreign minister George Papandreou, the
current President of the EU council of ministers, told reporters this
evening.
*******
Misetich

Super Power Europe is flexing its muscle - How long before oil is priced in Euros?

Got gold?

Leigh (2/24/03; 19:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98312)
Ag Mountain
Well, let's see. The debate could start, and the moderator could announce the subject: Gold for Oil. Or, Euros for Oil. "Gentlemen, I will give each of you ten minutes to tell what you know about this subject. Saddam, you go first." Saddam gives a rapid ten-minute synopsis of Aristotle's multi-part treatise on gold for oil. Then the moderator says, "OK, Mr. Bush, what does the U.S. government have to say about gold for oil?"

"I refuse to answer on the grounds that it may incriminate me."


misetich (2/24/03; 19:12:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 98311)
Standard Life to bite solvency bullet-first UK insurer to ask for solvency rules to be relaxed to help it cope with falling stock markets
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2794621.stm
Snip:

The company insists it is in good financial health and could even cope with a fall in the FTSE 100 index of more than 40%, from its current level of 3721 to 2100.

"We are very comfortable with our solvency levels at the moment.

"But anything that increases our investment freedom, to help bring in the sort of returns our policyholders are looking for, has to be a good thing," said a spokesman.

Independent insurance analyst Ned Cazalet was more sceptical.

"You don't go to the regulator for a waiver unless you have to," he told Reuters news agency.

He added: "Once one insurer gets a waiver, they'll all want one."

The UK's financial watchdog, the Financial Services Authority, said in January that insurers would no longer have to meet a benchmark known as the Required Minimum Margin (RMM).

This had specified the value of their investments had to be 4% greater than their liabilities.

The move was also designed to prevent insurers from dumping large volumes of shares to maintain regulatory levels of solvency, which had made heavy stock market falls worse.
*********
Misetich

Funds managers couldn't resist being left behind during the stock market bubble - and recklessly increased their exposure to stocks -

These ordinarily "intelligent" people fell prey to the Utupia of never never land - the New Paradigm - the New Economy - the Productivity Miracle - The Greenspan Put -

The masses followed - everybody is in the same boat - can't fail - the "government" would bail them out -

The strong US $ policy - built on military might and trade deficits is being threatened by the Axis of Peace

Place your bets -

Got gold?






ElGordo (2/24/03; 19:09:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98310)
Asia news
SINGAPORE, Feb 25

(Reuters) - Oil and gold rose on Tuesday, Asian stocks fell and the yen wobbled as the United States and Britain circulated a U.N. resolution setting the stage for war with Iraq and North Korea test-fired a land-to-ship missile.

The U.N. resolution opened a fresh period of intense diplomacy among split Security Council members as France and Germany issued a rival proposal extending U.N. inspections for at least four months. No vote is expected on the new resolution for another two weeks.

Japanese and Korean stocks fell after a tumble on Wall Street and on news that North Korea had fired a missile into the sea near the Korean peninsula in a provocative move ahead of the inauguration on Tuesday of South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun.

Japanese shares <.N225> lost over two percent at one point and Korean stocks <.KS11> crumbled over 2.5 percent.

NYMEX oil futures <CLJ3> gained 29 cents in electronic trading to $36.77 a barrel, approaching recent 29-month highs, after a rise of nearly a dollar in New York as the United States and Britain prepared to present their resolution.

Gold rose around $3 to $358.50/9.50 in Asian markets on concerns U.S.-led military action against Iraq was getting closer and on jitters over the North Korean missile test.

The yen was under pressure on the missile firing but the dollar still looked vulnerable to further selling on mounting fears over possible war in Iraq. Worries about Japanese intervention provided underlying support for the greenback.


Ag Mountain (2/24/03; 18:56:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98309)
leigh, what's the relation to gold investments?
I once saw a good tea party ruined when someone showed up with wine.

Daniel Druff (2/24/03; 18:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98308)
Solomon Weaver
"pro-forma"...?
"Newmont said total ounces hedged through forward sales and options on a pro-forma basis fell to 6.6 million at the end of 2002 from 11.5 million a year earlier."

VanRip (2/24/03; 18:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98307)
What to Believe
http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/international.cfm?id=236182003
Some newspapers and outlets reporting the missile firing as fact. Now this.

"North Korea denies missile test in Pacific

JOHN INNES
TENSIONS were mounting in the Pacific last night after claims that North Korea had carried out a missile test in the Sea of Japan.

A South Korean newspaper reported that a land-to-ship missile was fired to the east of the Korean peninsula on Monday.

However, officials from both North and South Korea as well as Japan and the United States said there was no evidence of such a test.

In Washington, a spokesman from the US defence department said he was unaware of any missile activity by the North Koreans - a statement echoed by defence officials in Tokyo. An official at South Korea's unification ministry also said he was unaware of any missile tests by Pyongyang.

The denials came after Joong Ang Ilbo, a Seoul daily newspaper, quoted an unnamed South Korean official as saying the North had launched the missile. North Korea is currently deadlocked with the US over Pyongyang's suspected nuclear weapons programme.

Last week, a North Korean MiG-19 fighter plane prompted an international incident by intruding into the South's air space.

Pyongyang caused consternation by launching a long-range ballistic missile over Japan in August 1998."


Leigh (2/24/03; 18:36:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98306)
Saddam/Bush Debate
I read today that Saddam has challenged Bush to a debate. Has anyone ever thought about the BLACKMAIL Saddam could use? If even half of what I've read is true, there are all kinds of back room deals between our leaders and Saddam (and Osama too). Someone was posting today about some photograph of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam that was taken a number of years ago. How about if Saddam brought out that picture and waved it around during the debate?

WHY is it that Saddam hasn't brought some of this forward? I'm just wondering.

misetich (2/24/03; 18:29:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98305)
Morgan Stanley - Roach - Berner Greenlaw - downgrade World Economic Growth Forecast
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Snips:

We're downgrading our US and global economic forecasts.  In our view, surging energy prices and the shock to consumer and business sentiment from today's stalemate over Iraq and tomorrow's likelihood of war will tax growth appreciably.  Year on year, we now expect US real growth this year to struggle to an anemic 2.1%, compared with the 2.5% we expected only a fortnight ago.
..........
n addition, the world's sole growth engine is now struggling with a wide array of post-bubble aftershocks -- especially record private sector indebtedness, unprecedented lows of national saving, and a record current-account deficit. Consequently, notwithstanding aggressive policy stimulus, there's no guarantee that renewed vigor in the US economy will provide much of a lift to a one-engine world economy.
.........
Consequently, we now think that crude oil prices will rise further, peaking at $40 (on a Brent basis) in March with only a modest retreat in April. Thereafter, as military action is eventually successful, we have factored in a gradual decline towards $23 by the end of 2003
........
With crude oil prices currently running more than 85% above their early 2002 levels, it's no longer a stretch to depict this outcome as a full-blown oil shock.
............
We live in uncertain and frightening times
********
Misetich

"We live in uncertain and frightening times" - Roach says in his February 24 Dispatch "Rethinking the World" -

and GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD - Outperforms during times of crisis

Is banking safe? - During turbulent times banks play it "safe" and invest in government securities - governments spending skyrockets - increasing ballooning deficits - and money is spend on consumed items - mainly non-productive -

The "productivity myth" is being CRUSHED! as a fabricated lie - The court jester - Sir Greenspam - has prepared his farewell - (openly criticizing Bush's tax cut stimulus) -

Got gold?




Solomon Weaver (2/24/03; 17:58:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98304)
Newmont reduces hedgebook on gold
UPDATE 1-Newmont downsizes gold hedges in 2002
February 24, 2003 12:34:00 PM ET

(Adds details, quotes)

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the world's largest gold miner, on Monday said it had slashed by more than 40 percent the gold hedge book it inherited last year in a three-way international merger.

In a press release, Denver-based Newmont also said it would release its financial results for 2002 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission concured with its accounting for recent acquisitions.

Many gold companies use hedging to lock in prices for nuggets that have not yet been mined.

A committed non-hedger, Newmont acquired a large hedge book from Australia's Normandy Mining in the tie-up with Normandy and Canada's Franco Nevada Mining early last year.

Newmont said total ounces hedged through forward sales and options on a pro-forma basis fell to 6.6 million at the end of 2002 from 11.5 million a year earlier.

The company produced 7.6 million ounces of gold last year at a total cash cost of $189 an ounce. It said fourth-quarter output was 2.2 million ounces at a cash cost of $178 per ounce.

Committed ounces hedged through forward sales fell to 5.23 million at the end of 2002 from 9 million a year earlier.

"This represents approximately nine months of equity gold production, or 6 percent of reserves," Newmont Chief Financial Officer Bruce Hansen said in a press release.

"A minimum of 1.1 million committed ounces will mature or are scheduled to be delivered into (contracts) during 2003, and we will continue to look for opportunities to eliminate additional positions," Hansen said.

Hedging worked well for gold producers when gold prices were falling in recent years, but the practice backfired as the metal's fortunes improved, creating an investor backlash.

Gold companies that had relatively small hedges or did not hedge at all were able to enjoy the full benefit of the rally in gold prices in 2002 and this year.

Newmont has been a favorite among investors who moved into gold stocks after neglecting them during the 1990s technology boom. The gold sector was one of the only star performers in 2002.

"The company has done a very, very good job of managing the market's expectations," said Victor Flores, mining analyst at HSBC. "The market basically treats Newmont as an unhedged company even though they do have hedging on the books as a result of the Normandy acquisition."

Newmont said it had total gold reserves of 86.9 million ounces at the end of 2002.

POS: Pretty important little announcement

Topaz (2/24/03; 17:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98303)
@Malfleur.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAU&t=AUD
Same thing happened yesterday...short covering by Aussie Miners on the back of an "unusually" stronger Au/Dollar methinks.

Malfleur (2/24/03; 17:31:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98302)
POG
While the US sleeps and the Hong Kong market has still not opened spot POG jumped two bucks in one leap from 357 to 359.
What do they know in Sydney that we haven't yet heard in Shanghai?

TownCrier (2/24/03; 17:03:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98301)
Lou Dobbs prepares nation (mentally) for higher gasoline/oil prices
On Moneyline, L.D. featured a story and stressed in his commentary that the price of gasoline and oil, when adjusted for inflation today, is well-below the prices we paid one generation (22 years) ago. With average national prices for gasoline now near their nominal all-time high, Lou went on to say stress that much of the hype that many market participants are expressing over "high prices" is overblown, and that prices have much room to move higher based on historical precedent.

Reading between the lines, OPEC is not necessarily getting good value for their oil today in inflated (depreciated) dollars, and higher prices may therefore be in the pipeline.

The implication for prices in general, and for gold specifically, should be clear. Call USAGOLD - Centennial to diversify your portfolio and preserve your liquid purchasing power with gold.

R.

misetich (2/24/03; 15:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 98300)
US Economy Reality Check - Small Firms Hurting; Job Cuts Widen
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046093400000&sn=1&banner=mainwire
Snip:

Most companies in the sample describe business conditions as
uncertain. Many say their customers are buying on short notice and in
small quantities. Most expect their customers to continue to delay
capital equipment purchases until evidence appears that general economic
activity is improving.
..........
New evidence of employment weakness is the most notable result of
the latest survey (note that job cuts are mixed between U.S. and foreign
operations). Agilent (electronics test instruments & fiber-optic/
wireless products) said orders in the January quarter were
weak, especially in the United States, forcing it to cut 4,000 jobs over
the next few months. The company said that visibility "has never been
worse" and that there is little hope conditions will improve anytime
soon.
Cintas (work uniforms) complained of weak business conditions,
saying its customers continue "to shrink the number of people" they
employ. National Semiconductor (specialty chips) said it will cut 500
jobs and sell two divisions. Micron Technology (memory chips) said it
will cut 1,800 jobs, marking the company's first layoff in 17 years.
Micron, unlike many manufacturers, said capital investment in its own
business is paramount (the company plans to issue $550 million in bonds
to fund capital spending).
The latest job cuts confirm a wide trend throughout the
capital-goods sector. The effect on the domestic economy is magnified by
a rising determination to ship employment offshore, especially to Asia.
.........
Credence Systems (chip-testing equip.) said the industry is now in
a second trough with low business levels similar to those that were
established this time last year.
........
Phototronics (glass plates for chipmaking) blamed the "difficult
operating environment" for its 15 percent decline in year-on-year
..........
Price decay, however, appears largely isolated to electronics.
...........
Terex Roadbuilding & Utility Products, like its rivals, said it is
being hurt by budget constraints at the federal, state, and local
levels. The company sees no relief in the short term.
..........
There is no hope visible, however, for nonresidential construction.
Apogee Architectural (nonres. glass products) said its outlook is
declining. The company said it is operating at only 60 percent capacity,
..........
York (HVAC&R & compressors) posted revenue gains but only because
of the weak dollar. The company is weighing new reductions in
manufacturing capacity and the elimination of product lines.

Finally, Kaydon (bearings & filters) echoed the general phrasing of
most companies, saying demand in key markets remains soft and that its
outlook is clouded by "economic and geopolitical uncertainties"
**********
Misetich

Now back to our "regular sheduled programming" the US recovery is well underway

Got gold?

ElGordo (2/24/03; 14:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98299)
Attack of the Drones?
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,79450,00.html
Iraqi Drones May Target U.S. Cities

Monday, February 24, 2003


WASHINGTON — Iraq could be planning a chemical or biological attack on American cities through the use of remote-controlled "drone" planes equipped with GPS tracking maps, according to U.S. intelligence.

The information about Iraq's unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) program has caused a "real concern" among defense personnel, senior U.S. officials tell Fox News. They're worried that these vehicles have already been, or could be, transported inside the United States to be used in an attack, although there is no proof that this has happened.

Secretary of State Colin Powell showed a picture of a small drone plane during his presentation to the U.N. Security Council earlier this month.

"UAVs outfitted with spray tanks constitute an ideal method for launching a terrorist attack using biological weapons," Powell said during his speech. "Iraq could use these small UAVs, which have a wingspan of only a few meters, to deliver biological agents to its neighbors or, if transported, to other countries, including the United States."


ElGordo (2/24/03; 14:15:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98298)
Gasoline prices to hit all-time high soon
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rising crude oil costs will likely push American retail gasoline prices to an all-time high, a U.S. government energy economist predicted on Monday.

The national pump price for regular unleaded gasoline reached $1.66 last week, just five cents short of the record $1.71 a gallon hit in mid-May 2001.

"We think we're going to break the record," Dave Costello, an economist with the Energy information Administration, told Reuters in an interview.

U.S. crude oil prices topped $36 a barrel on Monday on market fears of a U.S. attack on Iraq, low petroleum inventories and strong oil demand. Crude oil costs account for about 40 percent of the price of a gallon of gasoline.

Costello said even if crude oil prices do not further rise dramatically, gasoline costs will continue their upward trend.

"There's still momentum in the gasoline prices," he said.

Black Blade (2/24/03; 14:07:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98297)
Spot Getting Frisky Again
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/charts/cdcharttcl?symm=GLD.FX1&hist=1&dbrushwidth=1&charttype=1&gd1=na&gd2=na&benchmark=&infos=3&indtype1=0&indtype2=0&volumen=2

Spot up to $357 and rising in after hours.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (2/24/03; 13:58:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98296)
Energy Costs Soaring, Gold Higher, and USD Sinks
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp

WOW! Natgas up to $9.14 Mbtu, oil at $36.50/bbl, Gold up and USD down.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (2/24/03; 13:27:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98294)
News Flash - Saddam Refuses To Destroy Missiles

In an interview with CBS anchor Dan Rather, Saddam Hussein refuses Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix's demand to begin to destroy his illegal missiles. He also demands a televised debate with President George W. Bush. This looks like it could constitute a breach of the UN resolution 1441. Could get very "interesting" very soon.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (2/24/03; 13:19:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98293)
Corporate Accounting Fears Rock Europe
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2429141,00.html

Snippit:

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) - Fears over corporate accounting methods hit European markets Monday after global grocery store operator Ahold said it overstated earnings in 2001 and 2002 by at least $500 million and its leading executives will resign.

Black Blade: And you thought it was American frauds like Enron and WorldCon with accomplices in Arthur Andersen and JP Morgan Chase as well as complicated finances that were a problem? In Europe it's a simple grocer that is the problem. Hmmm…



Black Blade (2/24/03; 13:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98292)
Republican Governors Say Tax Hikes Unavoidable
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030223/politics_states_republicans_2.html

Snippit:

Unlike the federal government, the states must end the year with a balanced budget and must therefore cut spending or raise revenues as necessary to make ends meet. With emergency reserves, rainy day funds and other one-time funds mostly spent and as much fat already trimmed from budgets as politically possible, many states are facing an unenviable choice between slicing spending to the bone or raising taxes. Many already raised so-called "sin taxes" on cigarette products and alcohol to help flesh out the current year's budget, leaving just politically sensitive targets such as individual pocketbooks, corporate income and property. While Democrats have historically been lampooned as a profligate "tax and spend" party, even Republicans who cut taxes during the fat decade of the 1990s are being forced to hold their noses and bump up revenues to make ends meet.


Black Blade: States have been spending like drunken sailors during times of plenty instead of saving and now the chickens are coming home to roost.



Black Blade (2/24/03; 12:59:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98291)
New view says 'debt deflation' to delay recovery
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1790195

Snippit:

"Right now, we're moving into an economic environment that no one alive has any experience with. I think we're already in debt deflation." I asked what debt deflation was.

"It occurs when debt levels are unmanageable. Money that might be spent comes out of spending and goes into debt reduction. If you look at Japan in the '90s, debt deflation was first. Price deflation followed. It was the same here in the Depression. "We've got the highest levels of debt (relative to output) since 1933. Check the bankruptcy figures." Hunt flipped through a barrage of charts:

· Homeowner equity as a percent of total home values -- a decline from more than 80 percent in 1952 to about 56 percent today. Home values may be rising but, collectively, we're borrowing equity out of it faster than it comes in.

· The highest residential mortgage foreclosure rate in 30 years.

· A record level of business and consumer bankruptcies.

· A rising ratio of debt to gross domestic product, now about 160 percent.

How would people handle this?

"There are two ways," said Hunt. "It can be handled through income or through wealth. But we've lost 2.2 million private sector jobs since December 2000. We're seeing the weakest wage increases since 1993. So we're not likely to handle it through (higher) income. We're in a debt deflation that will take time -- it may take years."


Black Blade: Yes, consumers are tapped out. They are avoiding the stock market. They are stuck reducing debt and spending less. Corporations are cutting costs by cutting jobs and reducing capital expenditures. Bankruptcies and foreclosures are at record levels. No wonder stock markets are in a tailspin and people are getting scared. It's just the beginning of a secular bear market that will last years. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.



sector (2/24/03; 12:58:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98290)
HUI Shorters
Out in force today MDG, GG
Odd that they would push so hard down with pog sunning towards $360.

Then again there are no coincidences in war...especially a gold war.

This is a set-up.

The weak gold share longs are being shaken out and the strong hands are buying into the weakness just as the strong brokerage houses are selling into the DOW's weakness with their billions of Fed repos a'blazing.

Will there be a DOW spike when we invade? Lemming Vision [CNBC] would have you believe it. Perhaps the conventional "Wisdom" is wrong and the market has already priced in an invasion and two-week war.

Maybe they know the US will have done nothing more than achieve the status of a rougue nation as Zibigniew Bryzinski has said. The American "Administrator pumps Iraqi oil, rings Baghdad into a giant new Gaza and boasts that the US didn't have to fight house to house. Perhaps that "good outcome" is already in the DOW.

Meanwhile gold is strong and getting stronger. Look out $400.

Waverider (2/24/03; 12:24:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98289)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"New York spot gold settled higher at $355.60 an ounce up $4.90 an ounce from Friday's close. Gold resumed its upward climb on rising geopolitical concerns, a weak U.S. dollar, weaker equities market, soaring energy prices, and a sharp shake out of weak speculators in the gold market setting the stage for another rise in the price of gold..."

GoldnSilver2002 (2/24/03; 12:03:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98288)
The fat lady singing?
How stupid of the american manipulators and the uk to sell their gold to buy a couple of weeks.To lose so much money just to perserve an illusion.Wall st is in big trouble,all their smoke and mirrors only brought gold to 350 and down jones to 8,000?Now they say,"well after the war then maybe ,perhaps if all goes well then we could have a small rally."All that risk and virtually no upside,no wonder gold makes them cry and weep.

Now the mutual funds are tanking as one by one the cracks appear.Lets look ahead into the storm of 2003,war in iraq,more lawsuits,more bankrupcies ,higher energy,(japan)april first insurance on all deposits lifted(argentina?)'sinking usd as the globe responds to american imperialism,terrorism,north korea,brazil to default,venezuela,columbia,germany(worst recession since hitler?).Arabia on the verge of revolution,israel/iraq.


Oh ya dont buy gold??The recovery is coming?Not a chance,its time to take the boots to them guys.Dump down jones,dump nasdog'short jpm,barricks,citibank dump your dollars and buy gold.No one will believe wall st anymore after the war and no rally,why should anyone else.The fat lady is singing,wall st just thinks she's hailing in the new super bull market in declining assets/paper.

Daniel Druff (2/24/03; 11:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98287)
OhhhhhhCanadaaaaaaaaa
It's The Loonie, Ladies and Gentlemen...and what a great story.



Black Blade (2/24/03; 11:33:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98286)
Max Rabbitz

Spot Henry Hub NatGas is selling $12 bid/$14 ask on extremely high demand due to weather and another Artic Blast bearing down on the US. March contract is about $8.40 Mbtu and Apirl $7.22 Mbtu. The March contract expires on Wednesday and much of the spot price reflects a short-covering scramble, yet the April contract is still high and likley headed higher as storage is depleting faster than anyone had imagined.

The NWS and NOAA predicted warmer than normal winter temps and they were way off the mark as temps have been well below normal. We are looking at yet another Artic Blast cycling behind the current one too. What is interesting is that producers are not ramping up drill programs because they are afraid of being caught with high cost programs should the price crash like two years ago.

Storage levels look to finish at all time record lows and a rapidly declining production profile. There simply is not enough time left to ramp up production before next winter's heating season (even if they could). Canada is in even worse shape and they will need all their production this year and will have none to spare for the US. We are looking at an energy crunch of epic proportions that will throw the US into a deeper recession killing any possibility of "economic recovery". The cards have already been dealt and the game is as good as over. This has played out almost exactly as I have been saying over the last couple of years. It was a no brainer. The fun isn't quite over yet as next winter's energy prices will be much higher.

- Black Blade

goldenboy (2/24/03; 11:22:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98285)
Max Rabbitz: Spot High Confirmed on CNBC
Maybe some hedge fund got burned pretty badly! i am really getting peeved at these manipulations!

Daniel Druff (2/24/03; 11:14:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98284)
physicalman
"Severe Enviro Restrictions", Supply, and Recycled Silver From Disposable Camera Film
"physicalman (02/23/03; 21:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 98260)
Daniel Druff-silver
Silvers primary resource for 5500 years up until 1964 was monetary. Graanted silver has thousands of industrial and other applications and about 450 new uses are discovered every year. Those disposible camera's you harp about have over 94% of the silver recycled out of them. Recycling of all photographic films in the US is around 83% and would be 90% except for patient x-rays kept on file for many years.
Solving the silver problem requires that the price go to a point that reflects supply/demand and stay that way so mining of primary and secondary deposits can be done profitably. This will not happen until the paper silver burns and severe enviro restrictions are beaten down/abolished and america can restore herself as one of the world's leading producers of minerals and industrial commodities."

Physicalman, thank you for your comments. I'm sure that we would appreciate your source for the various percentages of silver recovered from film. I am not questioning your veracity in this matter.

The tree huggers of the world have actually helped increase the price of all natural resources by preventing productive mining/harvesting. Lower supply contributes to higher prices.

If you are correct in stating that "450 new uses are discovered every year", we should encourage the environmentalists to do a better job in reclaiming silver from the frivolous use of throwaway cameras. Let's get that number up to 99% before it's too late.

Finally, I have no problem with patient x-rays...after all, it just another store of wealth for their owners.

Thank you

Max Rabbitz (2/24/03; 10:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98283)
Natural Gas Prices Exploding?
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/index.html
Is this for real? Henry Hub at $13 per MMBTU! Up $6.10
Nymex Henry Hub at $8.25, up $1.64

CoBra(too) (2/24/03; 10:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98282)
Ahold seems Europe's Response to Accounting Fraud
A la' Arthur Anderson's Enron, though the banskters very actively had their dirty fingers in the pumpkin pie (@ Lady Waverider).
Meanwhile, the major German Banks are howling for government bail-outs - a proposition, the FED has maintained for too long, according to E. Griffin's genial "Creature from Jeckyll Island". Take out all bad loany and concentrate them in a government controlled bank,a.k.a. "Bad Bank" is the endeavor of the day by the good bankster bosses of Ger-mania.

A solution, not too far away from what the japanese banks have been receiving for years.

It seems the monetary system is on its last legs. I guess all of us congregating at this webside know how to respond ... cb2
PS: Nice to see POG moving again. Well, no reason it shouldn't.





Waverider (2/24/03; 07:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98280)
European Stocks Fall; Ahold Plunges After Restating Earnings
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APlodcxXwRXVyb3Bl
Snip:
"European stocks dropped as supermarket owner Royal Ahold NV plunged after saying earnings for 2001 and 2002 were inflated, the region's first disclosure since accounting scandals at WorldCom Inc. and Xerox Corp. contributed to a three-year drop in U.S. shares. ``It's the cockroach theory -- when you can see one, there are usually a few more hiding,'' said Richard Lewis, who oversees $1 billion as a fund manager at New Star Asset Management. Ahold plunged to 3.64 euros from 9.71 euros at Friday's close, erasing 5.6 billion euros ($6 billion) of market value. The start of trading in Ahold stock was delayed by almost two hours in Amsterdam. Investors bought and sold 52.2 million shares, about nine times the six-month daily average."

Waverider: I see the Netherlands AEX General index is off over 4.5% today, meanwhile, Spot is frisky this morning.

CoBra(too) (2/24/03; 07:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98279)
Why Iraq?
I've recently read an interesting interview with Johan Galtung, a pre-eminent Norwegian peace-researcher in the Austrian press. Galtung, a critical sociologist has founded the first institute for peace research as early as 1959. He has authored more than 50 books on the subject.

Q. – Can the Iraq war be avoided?
J.G. - No, it would be a miracle. I've never came across anything in the worlds history, being so far ahead planned in detail; It can't be simply ignored.
The games played at the UN Security Council are a farce. It's time for Bush to pay back his "investors", who want to cash in their due interest.
Q.- Please elaborate …
J.G. – The hegemonial system of the US is in a crisis. Such tough opposition was seen ver before, which also has to do with its methods: Threats and rewards versus trying to objectively convince. Furthermore, the world has caught on that the US have been equally unsuccessful in fighting terrorism. Neither Mullah Omar nor Osama Bin Laden have been neutralized.
Q. – Even if Saddam will be gone, the occupation of Iraq will be a long string of small defeats. In the logic of the Bedouins there are three values of importance: Courage, Honor and Dignity. And these you'll achieve by fighting against a superpower and it>'s got nothing to do with Saddam Hussein.
Q. – The Bush administration founds its troop deployment on the belief that Saddam supports terrorism…
J.G.- Yes, that's what is postulated, though were is the evidence? Saddam's socialistic Baath party is secular, while Osama is a Wahhabit, "The fundamentalists" of the fundamentalists. As The US are split on the Iraq question as a means of retaliation for Sept. 11, more so now as with the Afghan war and the outing of the Taliban.
This may not be the crucial point, as it is the ME oil. A US company has optioned to share revenues from an oil pipeline 43/57 in favour of the Taliban. An argentinian company upped the option to 78% and the Taliban accepted. The US was totally frustrated and that was the
Reality behind the decision to go to war – 3 weeks before 9.11!
Human rights was not the determining factor. It was the oil, as it is again. The Bush administration sports 6 top members being connected to big oil. You could call it the "oil slick" of the White House. This is why the rest of the world is reluctant to accept the US
Position. It is the control over ME Oil, which is the real goal. And in this way the cynical
Posturing of GWB, if you're not with us you're against us, may be seen in the new cols light
As decribed.


I've personally never accepted oil being the real reason for the Iraq war and dismissed it as too cynical. Now I'm starting to accept this reality, as I can't really fault Joan Galtung's logic. I still feel, though that the combination of oil control and diffusion of economic (bursting financial bubbles and ongoing currency debasement) and social (diminishing liberty and unconstitutional agendas) problems at home, this constitutes a powerful adjective carrot for the administration.
Protect yourself and hold physical – as the government has is not interested to protect you or in your well being. Sad but true –cb2



Boilermaker (2/24/03; 07:10:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98278)
Investors Do Win
http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/business/5238873.htm
Here's the lead article in my local newspaper's Sunday Business Section:

Investors do win
Novices can defeat brokers in arbitration
By Gretchen Morgenson
New York Times

snip;
Francis Edward Wolfe, a close-cropped, soft-spoken family man who hoped to travel the country with his wife in a motor home when he retired, hardly seems intimidating. But this 58-year-old former truck driver from Fredricksburg, south of Wooster, and other investors like him, have become one big nightmare for Wall Street.

Wolfe sued Merrill Lynch last year over $172,000 in stock market losses in his 401(k) plan, and last month, arbitrators awarded him $310,000, including legal expenses.


comment; This lemming got some satisfaction. At least the print media is finally paying attention.

Boilermaker

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