Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/25/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(2/25/03; 23:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98417)
Natural gas passes $9/Mcf , heating oil hits record high on NYMEX
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=169374
Snippit:
HOUSTON, Feb 25 -- Propelled by icy weather in the Midwest and Northeast US, the March natural gas contract slid past $9/Mcf to a 25-month high, while heating oil for the same month set a record high Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The combined effects of cold weather, dwindling supplies, and lagging drilling programs have driven storage inventories 43% below a year ago," analysts at Enerfax Daily reported Tuesday. Price volatility usually associated with contract expirations also added to Monday's fly-up, said John P. Herrlin Jr., first vice-president of the Merrill Lynch Global Securities Research & Economics Group. Those NYMEX contracts are scheduled to terminate trading Wednesday. "$9+/Mcf gas in February is not healthy for the demand side of the equation, but given the consistent above-average withdrawals (of natural gas from US underground storage) experienced over each of the last 6 weeks and the return of cold weather to the Northeast, many (traders) are now speculating on (seasonal) ending levels for storage." Enerfax Daily analysts said that rebuilding potentially record-low US gas storage "will be far more difficult because the amount of new gas drilled in the US continues to dwindle as old fields yield less gas and demand rises as the economy recovers."
Black Blade: An energy crisis of epic proportions is in the making. Record low storage at the end of heating season looks certain and low drilling activity suggests a severe energy crunch with extremely low storage at the start of the next winter heating season. If this Summer is normal or warmer than normal the energy situation will go critical. Scratch any hopes for an "economic recovery".
steady
(2/25/03; 23:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98416)
honest answers
http://home.attbi.com/~kmatenaer/SNL.wmv
honesty is a virtue!
Mr Gresham
(2/25/03; 22:55:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98415)
Speaking of snow...
http://www.msnbc.com/news/877081.asp
wasn't someone else born in a blizzard? (Some scholars give March as the birth month, rather than December.)
Are new wise men even now stopping in snowy alleyways to ask young boys directions to the back room of a bicycle repair shop in Nablus?
(My thoughts from these pictures? Remember -- as logically as we know that, under the current directions, we are all truly f****d, when something breaks through to open our eyes and to change the whole story, then it really IS a miracle, and we are all given a new birth.)
Great photos here -- click on "Play"
sector
(2/25/03; 22:55:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98414)
Turkey, Kurds Lock Horns Over U.S. Deployment
http://islamonline.net/english/News/2003-02/25/article10.shtml
A convoy of Turkish military trucks to be sent to northern Iraq ahead of looming U.S.-led invasion
ANKARA, February 25 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies ) - Turkey's plans to allow some 62,000 U.S. troops to use Turkish military bases, including those in northern Iraq, as a springboard for a possible invasion of Iraq, triggered strong hostility among Kurds controlling the areas.
A government motion asking parliament to approve the deployment of the U.S. forces for a period of six months would be submitted to parliament later Tuesday, February 25, Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin as saying.
Tensions further ran high between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds due to Ankara's intention to dispatch troops in northern Iraq with Kurdish leaders issuing pointed warnings to the Turkish government.
Alarmed by the Turkish move, the Iraqi Kurd parliament met in special session Tuesday with deputies from the autonomous region's main factions unanimously calling for international action to keep Ankara's regional ambitions in check.
During the packed session, deputies approved a text stating "the Kurdish parliament rejects any military intervention by Turkey or other countries in Kurdistan for any pretext."
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) have accused Turkey of seeking to reclaim areas once part of the Ottoman Empire, notably the oil-rich areas of Kirkuk and Mosul, in the event of a U.S.-led invasion.
In the strongest remarks to date, senior officials of the KDP and the PUk warned of possible armed conflict should the Turkish army intervene in the region.
"We will oppose any Turkish military intervention... Any intervention, under whatever pretext, will lead to clashes," said KDP's chief spokesman, Hoshyar Zebari.
"If Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein were toppled in a U.S.-led operation, there must be no intervention aimed at limiting our right to freely determine what kind of a system we want," said Barham Salih, a prominent figure in the PUK.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
The unpredictability of war. 50% of all Iraqis are under 15 years of age. The Kurds have nothing to lose.
Black Blade
(2/25/03; 22:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98413)
California Income Tax Revenue Continued to Decline in January
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Local%20Muni%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_munibonds&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&middle=blk&s=APlqI.xZLQ2FsaWZv
Snippit:
Sacramento, California, Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- California, the most populous U.S state, saw income tax revenue in January fall below forecasts for the 18th month a row, blunting efforts by state officials to fill a record budget deficit. The state collected 2.1 percent less in revenue from all taxes in January than what was projected, according to a report by the state's Department of Finance. Personal income tax receipts, which accounted for almost half of the state's general fund revenue for the month, were $150 million below a forecast of $5 billion and are down 24 percent from this time last year.
Black Blade: Shouldn't be a problem as I understand their remedy is to raise taxes to make up for the shortfall. I also understand that the state is considering a medical insurance bill requiring businesses to fund a "universal health care" package for the state's uninsured. As businesses close or leave the state and people are laid off I suppose the state government could just keep raising taxes. But then media and government economists say there is an "economic recovery" underway. Hmmm…
mikal
(2/25/03; 22:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98412)
Thom Calandra on war and energy
http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com
Tue, Feb 25, 2003 Subject: CBSMW Thom Calandra's StockWatch: Ignoring political news, energy markets set to tumble
ENERGY MARKET SET FOR TUMBLE
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -Excerpts: "Energy investors will face a jolt of reality if Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein sidesteps a looming physical assault on his nation, says a financial author and money manager.....
Duarte says many investors will require anesthesia in coming hours or days because they are deducing simplistic probabilities from the Iraq situation. He relies on several little-known news outlets to form a thesis that soaring energy markets may soon crash.....
The money manager points to reports, ignored in the American press, that the German government admitted holding back evidence of smallpox-virus arsenals in Iraq. The news organization Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says German authorities may have been worried that news of the arsenals would ruin Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder's re-election effort.
Schroeder on Wednesday will visit Moscow at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader this past weekend sent a former prime minister, Yevgeny Primakov, to meet with Saddam in Baghdad. Stratfor describes Primakov as a friend of Saddam.
Duarte in the past 18 months has forecast accurately the growing volatility of energy markets. He also has laid out the growing importance of Russia and the diminishing influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on supply and demand in the oil marketplace.
"Look, Saddam does have smallpox, the virus, and it is a biological weapon, and Germany knows about it," he says. "As these things start coming out in the open, and Putin gets involved, a lot of personal things that can be politically damaging will shape events. Over the last two or three days a lot of reports have come out that are damning to a lot of people."
France, Germany and Russia have submitted a proposal to the United Nations calling for a step-by-step disarmament of Iraq. At the same time, intelligence reports, according to Duarte, suggest Russia's Putin may be preparing an Iraq message to U.S. and British oil companies, inviting the multinationals back into the oil-producing country.
Duarte says it is in the interests of several world leaders to see a peaceful resolution to the Iraq crisis. "If we don't see a solution, then a lot of things are going to unravel for a lot of people. Political futures are being shaped here for Putin, Chirac, Schroeder and President Bush. This is like the Winston Churchill stage of World War II. It is no longer just about war, it is about the people, and this is when things start to happen.".....End snippits
steady
(2/25/03; 22:27:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98411)
none
http://www.marketoons.com/index.html
funny! are they talking about gold?
Black Blade
(2/25/03; 22:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 98410)
Fleming to Cut 1,800 Jobs; SEC Begins Formal Review
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APluCiROaRmxlbWlu
Snippit:
Lewisville, Texas, Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Fleming Cos., the largest U.S. grocery distributor, will cut 1,800 jobs after losing a contract to supply Kmart Corp. The Securities and Exchange Commission formalized an accounting investigation.
Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows with 1,800 more nonessential "bones" tossed aside like old used rags.
Black Blade
(2/25/03; 22:04:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98409)
Market Wrap Up – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
This morning's headlines were bad. The stock markets headed south very quickly and were in danger of spiraling downward. The S&P 500 was down 1.7 percent after yesterday's big loss. The Dow was down close to 2 percent and the Nasdaq had fallen 2.1 percent. Gold and commodity prices were soaring again. Something had to be done. Gold was slammed, commodity prices were driven down, and miracles took place in the futures pit that led to similar miracles in the major indexes. Another day of big losses turned into gains with the Dow gaining 0.7 percent, the S&P 500 closed up 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.5 percent. The turn around appeared out of nowhere, actually from the futures pit, which is usually the origination for most of these stock market miracles. A big unnamed buyer comes in and buys stock index futures at any price in an effort to drive the markets up. After the markets turn around it then becomes the job of giggly reporters and anchors to come up with a credible reason why the markets quickly turned around from a position of a major loss to a positive gain. The reporters feed stories to an investor audience whose incredulity gets larger by the day as the financial media feeds its audience a steady diet of constant bull stories. Every economic and earnings report is always better-than-expected. The fact that the economic numbers don't jibe with reality, that companies continue to see declining sales and profits and lay off more workers is often ignored or goes unreported. Instead, wildly bullish predictions are made or guests appear who reinforce the bullish side arguments. Meanwhile, the average investor has been numbed by losses and stories of redemption if he only holds on a little while longer. This has been the pattern that is becoming ever more obvious for the trained eye. The bottom line is that intervention is being used, in my opinion, as a means of preventing a crash. History teaches us that these efforts are useless.
Black Blade: This is a good short version of what's happening in the market (though I really do wish the markets were better off). I have been discussing this as well but usually more subdued. Some will blame the President's Working Group on Financial Markets for the suspicious timed US market index futures buying. I really don't know who as I am out of the loop as it were, but it is painfully obvious that there is intervention in the stock markets – either that or an unbelievable amount of well timed coincidences that occur in unison. I tend to see this in early pre-market action a lot where index futures are positioned at a very low level only to see a steady stream of index futures buying suddenly appear lifting the futures only to suddenly stop and hold or drift slightly. Lately there have been several days where the stock market averages would suddenly rally in the last hour of trading even when there was absolutely no good news and very little volume. I am not one who believes in conspiracies but in the case of the stock market there is a lot of precedent for this type of intervention activity. In the end this "intervention" will fail as it always has in the past, but it does present a false picture to the ignorant novices who look to invest their hard earned cash (at least those who are still working and have disposable cash to invest). As it is I just find it all quite amusing to watch Wall Street try to game the little people who are mostly tapped out and who have left the market or are sitting on the sidelines shaking in fear. It appears that the only ones left are the institutionals who will end up gaming each other.
TownCrier
(2/25/03; 22:00:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98408)
My spelling alone deserves an error message
reenactment
(no i)
R.
Trapper
(2/25/03; 21:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 98407)
Sir Pizz
Hey that is great news. Well from my experience as to your distance to town depends on the type of country you are to live in. If you are headed for big snow country I suggest not too far from a main road. I lived on the south shore of Lake Superior in the UP of Michigan and we got 150 inches plus per year and snow was a constant problem. I'm now older and live on the south side and on Lake Michigan 50 inches per year...much better. If I can help with anything please just ask. I trap, hunt, can my food, and live alot off the land, I feel I might have some skills and will share.
I was wired up for the first few years after my move and I suggest you use your new sense of adventure to make the most of it in the beginning as belive it or not it will become mundane as city life after some time.You will get used to the views and the fresh air..but the freedom is forever.
Live small but happy my friend.
At Your Service
Randy
TownCrier
(2/25/03; 21:48:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98406)
A smarty-pants reinactment
To see an error message -- click here
R.
TownCrier
(2/25/03; 21:46:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 98405)
To "K.T.", the latest kind soul to have e-mailed me, asking me to fix the link problems at the forum
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
Thank you for calling to my attention that the various links provided by posters at the forum almost never work. On a good day, I get less than a dozen of these complaints. On a brisk day, they absolutely fill my inbox.
Perhaps going public with this will alleviate the problems, because its source is external and beyond my control.
Above, you will find an example of the proper use of the hyperlink field. One click should verify that this system is in proper working order.
Unfortunately, a great many posters seem to have adopted that input field as a sort of additional, cutsie bluish underlined subject line. Although it may look like a link, let me assure you, if it doesn't look like a URL ADDRESS with the telltale "http://www" portion at the beginning, then don't bother clicking on it, because it is definitely not a link.
Only with the cooperation of our posters can this bit of confusion be eliminated for our new vistors like yourself.
All abuses and additional workload duly noted, I must admit, however, the funniest thing I've ever seen here is when one very clever poster recently used the rampant abuses of this feature to make a point. Rather than describe it to you, I will demonstrate with a reinactment in a second post that will follow shortly hereafter. (I only wish I could give credit where credit is due, but I have forgotten the responsible party.)
R.
TownCrier
(2/25/03; 21:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98404)
Thoughts on the 30-tonne Eurosystem sale
As announced in the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, another 30 tonnes of the 1999 Central Bank Agreement on gold 2000-tonne gold allocation was officially sold by a member bank.
Regarding the WHO of this issue, as of the start of this third "fiscal year" of this Agreement back on September 26th, I had reason to support that the Dutch central bank would be selling approximately 115 tonnes into this year's 400-tonne Agreement quota, complemented by Swiss selling of 283 tonnes.
In the grand scheme of things, one might ask how this 30-tonne transaction measures up. The size of last week's eurosystem gold transaction was a decrease of 326 million euros. In that same week, however, the foreign currency position was unapologetically reduced by another 400 billion euros.
In the last week of December, the Eurosystem reported 131 billion euros of reserves as gold and gold receivables. Additionally, it had a foreign currency position worth 240 billion euros.
The eurosystem gold position now stands at 130.3 billion euros (nearly steady, two months later), while the foreign currency positon (dollars, etc) has been pared down to 224 billion euros (down 16 billion euros in value).
This excerpt of commentary [edited for clarity] that I offered December 30th (the day before the latest quarterly mark-to-market) revaluation may provide additional perspective on gold prices, and makes the recent gold price run up to $390 appear well within expectations going forward and not just a temporary one-off event.
-------------------
-----------As alarmed as some may have been by today's [December 30] tiny slide in the price of gold, they may be comforted (or perhaps more surprised) to learn that today's US$344 price, on the eve of the eurosystem revaluation, corresponds to a euro price of EUR 327. This price is just a shade over the official book value at which gold is being carried this past quarter.
Currently (as of Dec 20th), the Eurosystem has a net position in foreign currency of EUR 240 billion. Eurosystem gold and gold receivables total EUR 131 billion.
It may be instructive to make two crude approximations and assumptions:
First, we will assume no significant portfolio adjustments have occured to change these figures during this past two weeks by eurosystem members.
Second, we will (crudely) approximate that 100% of the position in foreign currency is in U.S. dollars (or at least assets that echoed its performance).
Using today's figures [Dec. 30] as a test case for tomorrow's real revaluation, the dollar slide from EUR 1.01 to EUR 0.95 represents a foreign currency position LOSS valued at EUR 14 billion.
Meanwhile, today's drop in market price of gold to match last quarter's EUR327 price means that the gold position will be providing no counter-compensation for the mark-to-market paper losses this quarter. For full compensation to occur via the gold reserves this time around, the eurosystem would need to see gold's free market value climb (overnight!) by EUR 35 per ounce, corresponding to a year-end price of gold at EUR 362. In dollar terms, that is $381 per ounce.
[February Note of Interjection: And, in fact, we subsequently saw that level of pricing be reached and exceeded, much sooner that many would have been willing to predict! But I was justifiably cautious that day, and offered the following prediction in that December post.]
(...continuing...)
I doubt that we will quite get there [$381] overnight, but as I stated, this exercise was meant to be merely instructive, being built quickly on several crude approximations. At the very least, you should see in this the motivations behind euroland's position (political will) on the free gold market in the face of failing dollars.
Take heart, goldmeisters. Retracements in the price of gold are surely to be trifling and temporary. There is too much at stake to allow the perception of gold's value to be fed to the wolves upon the taint of its illusory derivative abundance.------------
--------------------
With the passing of two months, I still stand by my conclusion from that post:
"When pricing opportunity and fincances allow, call Centennial and make arrangements to back your truck up to the loading bay... if you get my meaning."
Randy
ElGordo
(2/25/03; 21:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98403)
Saddam defiant
Singapore, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose as much as 0.7 percent after Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein said he won't be forced into exile in the face of U.S. threats to invade the country if it refuses to destroy its weapons of mass destruction.
``We will die in this country and we will maintain our honor,'' Hussein said in a CBS television interview to be aired today, according to a transcript on the CBS Web site.
U.S. President George W. Bush said it was time for the Iraqi leader to fully disarm or face military action. Concern that war may disrupt supply from the Persian Gulf, which pumps one-quarter of the world's oil, has pushed prices more than two-thirds higher in a year. In the CBS interview, Hussein said Iraq won't destroy its oil fields if it's attacked.
``If the guy is going down, he may take everything down with him and why will he want to give up his assets to his enemy?'' said Tony Nunan, manager of international petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.
21mabry
(2/25/03; 21:07:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98402)
dollar reserves
Was reading financial times feb.25 says that japan holds 460bn in us currency,and china is in second place holding 286bn in us currency.who holds the upper hand here.Has the U.S. gotten them to accept useless paper for valuable goods or do they have the upper hand holding such large amounts of our currency.
sector
(02/25/03; 20:20:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98401)
@CavenMan The COMEX Will Keep Rolling
...and the war HAS Started
There are too many other commodities traded there to close the floor.
If the chose to limit gold only however that would be way over the top. It might be considered a ban on gold trading.
BTW the Russians are having a dollar selling frenzy [Take it with a BIG grain]:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Speculation Over Dollar Collapse Provokes 'Minor Crisis' On Russian
Currency Market
Vremya MN
22 February 2003
Report by Sergey Guk: "A Dollar on the Brink of Collapse?"
There is minor panic on the currency market: for a number of days in succession market players have been divesting themselves of American currency.
The Bank of Russia has been forced to resort to serious intervention in
order to prevent a collapse of dollar quotations. Yesterday alone the
country's chief bank "neutralized" "greenback" surpluses worth approximately $1 billion. The market is in a state of agitation: as always in such cases there is talk of an inevitable collapse of the dollar exchange rate in the next few weeks. The newspaper Vremya MN has appealed to experts with a request for their assessment of what is occurring.
Pavel Medvedev, member of the National Banking Council of the Central Bank and deputy chairman of the State Duma banking committee believes
that external factors are having the greatest impact on the existing situation - primarily the drawn out period of waiting to see how the conflict surrounding Iraq will end. There may be a further rise in world oil prices and the CB would then face a continuing struggle with the devaluation of the dollar, since there would be an increase in the flow of export profits into Russia. But a drop in quotations for mineral raw minerals cannot be ruled out and, what is more, it could be drastic. There would be a decline in dollar receipts and the dollar exchange rate would rise sharply. At the present time not one serious analyst is willing to say which of these two scenarios is the more realistic.
The Bank of Russia is facing a difficult task - it must not allow the exchange rate of the American currency either to take flight or to fall radically. At the moment the CB is being forced to buy up the surplus dollar mass. Moreover, forward contracts for March-April also include a high price for oil. It goes without saying that this weakens any efforts to reduce inflation.
Holders of dollars, including non-"oil" dollars, are now wondering whether or not it might be better to get rid of them. The situation is not catastrophic for the economy although it does pose some difficulties for the CB, which finds itself faced with the problem of sterilizing surplus rubles. However I believe that this problem can be resolved. Talks are going to start with the Ministry of Finance about issuing securities that are attractive to investors. The Bank of Russia and the government have a great many other possible options at their disposal for keeping the situation under control. Pavel Medvedev sums up by saying that they understand what dangers await them and that they will be able to activate those levers that they have at their disposal in order to prevent a collapse on the currency market.
Academician Nikolay Petrakov, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences
[RAN] Institute of Market Problems believes that a surplus supply of American currency always incites market players to speculate for a fall.
In principle they have chosen quite a felicitous moment for themselves -
from one day to another people are promising war in Iraq and in principle it may be possible to knock down the dollar exchange rate. My only doubts refer to whether the CB would actually let them speculate for a fall. The state prints rubles and is therefore in a position to emit virtually any quantity of the national currency on to the market.
Of course, this course of action is fraught with a new burst of inflation, but what would you wish? The Russians are people who have grown accustomed to everything. The most likely scenario is that the situation on the currency market will stabilize in the next few weeks and that there will be no crashes at all.
misetich
(02/25/03; 20:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98400)
US condemns Venezuela bomb blasts, chastises Chavez
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4587428&action=article
Snip:
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The US condemned the twin bomb blasts near the diplomatic missions of Colombia and Spain in the Venezuelan capital Caracas, and chastised President Hugo Chavez over his sharp rhetoric.
"We strongly condemn today's bombings and the use of any form of violence," State Department deputy spokesman Philip Reeker said.
"We note that these bombings followed the sharp verbal attacks by President Chavez on the international community, as well as Venezuelans."
Misetich
Chavez a thorn on the US side- ANOTHER oil producing country being under attack from the US administration
Chavez has thus far foiled every attempted disruptive tactics by the "opposition" - and he has the upper hand.
Oil prices are NOT going to get lower any time soon - OPEC is holding steady thus far and US economy, financial markets are crumbling
Got gold?
Ray Patten
(02/25/03; 19:41:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98399)
re: Mr Gresham (#98391)
ANOTHER & FOA have always implied that the Gold leasing scheme was suggested to the 29 year old central bank officers because they have no sense of history. They bought the trap, hook, line and sinker. They have sold half of their Gold (except France). We have but to sit and enjoy the show!
Trojan
(02/25/03; 19:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98398)
$35 Oil and $1.11 Heating Oil
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2003/0225.htm
Snippet:
$35 Oil and $1.11 Heating Oil
by Bill Powers, Editor
Canadian Energy Viewpoint
February 25, 2003
The past few weeks have further reinforced my strong belief that the US is headed for an energy crisis epidemic proportions. While this might seem like a very bold statement, the facts more than support this argument. Even if one were to cast aside the improving, but still unstable, situation in Venezuela and the impending war with Iraq, it would become clear that America's complacency with its energy supply is woefully unfounded.
Since current supplies are often the best indicator of future supplies and future prices, let's examine what the US Department of Energy had to say in their weekly Petroleum Update for the week of January 31, 2003:
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.0 million barrels, but are 45.7 million barrels below the level last year at this time, and well below the lower end of the normal range for the end of January. Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories plummeted by 10.3 million barrels, and are also now below the lower end of the normal range, as too are residual fuel inventories. Motor gasoline inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week and are now at or slightly below the normal range. Total commercial petroleum inventories, at 918.6 million barrels, are also below the lower end of the normal range."
It should be noted that crude inventories in the US now stand at 28 years lows and at all-time lows on a days-available basis.
The oil workers strike in Venezuela is continuing to wreak havoc on the country. It has forced a country that was once one of the world's largest exporters of crude and refined products to import gasoline to meet growing shortages. Despite government reports that the country is now producing nearly 2 million barrels a day, it is likely the country is producing closer to 1 million barrels a day. While some of the striking oil workers have broken ranks for fear of losing their jobs, many more remain steadfast in maintaining union discipline. While it is still unclear how the strike will end, it is becoming very apparent that significant damage has been done to Venezuela's production capacity. The shutting in of many of the country's aging wells over the past couple of months has destroyed the pressure required for these wells to continue to be productive. It will take months once the strike has been concluded to know the full extent of the damage.
Early estimates indicate that as much as 500,000 barrel of equivalent per day (boed) of Venezuela's production capacity has been ruined.
Since the loss of over 1.5 million barrels a day of production from Venezuela was not enough shock the world into the reality that the 21st century's first energy crisis is upon us, I have every confidence the upcoming war with Iraq will awaken the world to the new energy landscape. Based on Saddam Hussein's threat to blow up Iraq's and Kuwait's oil fields at the first sign of attack, it would not be unreasonable to assume that the two countries would experience a complete cessation of oil production once hostilities begin.
According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Iraq and Kuwait combined to produce 4.3 million barrels of oil a day in October 2002. This figure amounts to 5.5% of total worldwide production. (Source: Oil and Gas Journal, January 13, 2003. page 67.) Clearly a disruption in oil production from Iraq and Kuwait for any length of time will have a dramatic effect on the price of oil. Many market observers believe oil can go to $40US if we go to war, other say $50US. Based on the tight world wide supply situation, I believe oil will go to at least $40US if the war is won quickly and easily. However, if my worst case scenario unfolds, we could be looking at $100US oil.
Trojan: Very Informative Article BUT Not as Good as Black Blade's Analysis :-)
Zhisheng
(02/25/03; 19:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98397)
@GoldnSilver2002
Quote from msg#: 98393: "Want to get revenge? Sell into the war rally, take profits and then if/when gold corrects buy more physical for cheap."
Might work, but consider the following:
1) the fundamentals imply that gold has to break loose AT SOME TIME;
2) it is to the manipulators benefit to choose that time;
3) if that time is coincident with an event serving as plausible cause for a break out, the manipulators gain cover;
4) sudden war in Iraq is such a plausible cause;
5) once "the genie is out of the bottle" it may not return.
mikal
(02/25/03; 18:59:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 98396)
Re: Closure of Comex
IMHO, they will have to close one or more exchanges or revamp operations thru merger, etc. DURING OR AFTER the war, depending on the dollar and other stability factors.
mikal
(02/25/03; 18:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 98395)
@Cavan Man, Sector
@Cavan Man- Re: Closure of Comex on news of war.
Temporary or longer term? Several scenarios are possible, aren't there?
@Sector- What do you think about that? Paper can only go so far. R.Powell would perhaps disagree, but IMHO, they will have to close them, merge into another exchange, or something else.
Also, what does the following mean to you?
From another forum today: "Putin initiates five-point plan to prevent U.S. military offensive. Primakov laid proposal before Iraqi leader in Baghdad over the weekend. Germany's Schroeder is invited to Moscow tomorrow to discuss its promotion." TIA.
ElGordo
(02/25/03; 18:29:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98394)
More accounting scandals?
http://reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2285940
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Fleming Cos. Inc. FLM.N , the top U.S. groceries distributor, on Tuesday said federal securities regulators have stepped up their probe of the company, driving its stock price down 25 percent.
Fleming, whose fortunes soured as key customer Kmart Corp. KMRTQ.PK filed for bankruptcy and competition squeezed its supermarket customers, also said it would cut 1,800 jobs in a push to reduce costs and return to profitability. The job cuts represent about 15 percent of its staff.
Along with its stock, the company's bonds fell sharply in a sign that investors remain worried about its ability to cut its $1.95 billion debt. Richard Baldwin, an analyst at credit ratings agency Moody's Investor Services, said reducing its debt "is going to be a difficult goal to achieve when you have your revenue declining by 20 percent."
Fleming has other problems, too. Several law firms began asking investors last autumn to file lawsuits against the company for allegedly falsifying the health of its food store business.
Now the Securities & Exchange Commission is looking into a host of issues at the company, including its vendor trade practices, the presentation of earnings, its accounting for drop-ship sales transactions and its calculation of some same-store sales.
Fleming on Tuesday said the SEC probe, which was first announced in November, has been raised to a "formal investigation."
AHOLD PROBLEMS
Fleming's announcement of the SEC's formal investigation comes a day after Dutch grocer Ahold AHO.N AHLN.AS said it had unearthed accounting irregularities associated with vendor-related practices at its U.S. Foodservice subsidiary. Fleming's auditors are Deloitte & Touche, also the auditors Ahold.
___________
This industry is usually considered a safe haven.
GoldnSilver2002
(02/25/03; 18:06:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98393)
revenge on the cabal
It's pretty obvious the cartel is trying to scare all the gold stock holders out of their holdings for cheap,thus covering their shorts in preparation for war.Want to get revenge?Sell into the war rallly,take profits and then if/when gold corrects buy more physical for cheap.If one remembers that gold is suppressed via central bank sales(15,000 tons),then one understands gold is not really 350 per oz.Use the stock leveraging to buy more physical and close the door on the cartel as they try to cover their position.One neednt sell all to make a difference.The only thing i dont understand is with all the fiat money and rich lovers of gold in the world,why is there even any physical left?If gata is going all over the world,why hasnt the 80 billion dollar gold market been cornered by now?The middle east alone could buy all the gold yet alone,the chinese and japanese.To bring this game to an end,the physical must dry up.Does anyone know how much physical gold is available at 350 per oz?Ill bet not much'since they claim there is no manipulation,they can hardly charge anyone with cornering the market.How was Mr billionaire supposed to know he was buying the last of it?I see the cabal's game,buy gold shares from weak hands'sell into the huge rally in the war and try and cover their physical gold shorts on the correction.The only problem is with such low volume,are there any sellers left?I doubt it'since most would have to sell their shares at a loss and anyone with physical aint gonna sell at these prices.Sorry Mr cabal,we have waited too long to sell at a loss.But ill give you paper iou's for gold anytime you want.
Suckers!
Cavan Man
(02/25/03; 17:34:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98392)
Hi Ag Mountain
If I really knew anything I wouldn't be selling (empty) boxes! Yes, I mean the AU pit and that is only a guess but I believe a very good one. As for sector NO ONE needs to vouch for him. I couldn't carry his water though hope to carry his golf bag someday :>).
Mr Gresham
(02/25/03; 17:00:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98391)
POG quotes
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
BTW, looks like the INO was frozen on yesterday's close.
That CB sale, I've always been confused by FOA's idea that the ECB embodied the overall Euro plan for rising gold value, and then hearing all the other commentary about "CB's selling or leasing gold" all those years.
But I wondered if there was some rivalry within the EMU between the ECB and the national central banks not wanting to give up their local currency hegemony. (Welteke?) Anyway, the overall plan may be advancing, while locals run around in a diminishing space, with a still unknown power to sabotage the accession of the whole.
And then, of course, with the fall of the USSR in 1991, the espionage and "black bag" community hired themselves out to the business world. Where would business be most worth "influencing" but at the very TOP, the CBs?
Ferdi Lips was pretty explicit about the commercial interests of one of the leading gold-sale influencers in Switz. You wonder what incentives exist, personally, for others? Are all the "public servants" really that public, or have they "consulting" sidelines they plan to fall back upon? Alas, we'll probably never know...
Ag Mountain
(02/25/03; 16:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98390)
Cavan Man
I assume you mean not the whole of comex, just the gold pit. Right?
On a related thing, doesn't this sound alot like the work of a shill for the paper boys?
"When the spike starts the bullion banks will be buying the HUI and XAU with abandon AND they will buy the COMEX way up."
Don't look at me, sector's the one who said it. Who's paying sector's bills that he's out doing their legwork like this? Hypes people up to by the leverage instead of metal. Some people are bought and sold, but others are just plain asleep at the wheel taking others along for the ride. I wonder which it is, hmmmmm?
Cavan Man
(02/25/03; 16:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98389)
sector
When the war officially begins, I believe the COMEX will be closed. Those boys are still only working a half day aren't they?
Black Blade
(02/25/03; 15:58:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 98388)
SA govt to revamp gold ownership law
http://m1.mny.co.za/mgim03.nsf/Current/80256CCC004831DC42256CD30067EF87?OpenDocument
Snippit:
CAPE TOWN -- The South African government continued its swashbuckling revamp of its mining and beneficiation laws today with news that it would legalise the private ownership of gold in all its forms. Minerals and energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, said that the ministry's new beneficiation bill would seek to extend ownership by South African citizens beyond coins.
The proposed legislation, formerly known as the precious metals bill, is primarily aimed at promoting the beneficiation of South Africa's 59 different minerals. The ability for South Africans to own different forms of gold will help incentivise gold producers and the parastatal Rand Refinery to produce innovative gold products.
Market reaction has been generally positive. Ian Cockerill, chief executive of Gold Fields, said the abolition of the law would bring South African into line with international norms: "This is very positive and highly beneficial to the gold market. It will broaden the gold investment pool," he said.
Black Blade: Now South Africans can own all forms of gold. Kinda funny when you consider the economy is primarily a resource based one where gold plays an important role.
BTW, the 30 ton gold sale today is really a non issue except for the novice traders. It is within the WA of 1999. Besides, this gold will never see the light of day. Even the BOE auctioned gold was between banks with a few minor exceptions (ie. Gold Fields bought a some). Even then only LBME members were allowed to make purchases. The club is very restricted and not open to the public. I really do find the whole affair quite amusing as the weak speculators take it so seriously and sell off. But then that is to be expected of amateurs I suppose. Serious investors look at such opportunities as a gift from the gods as they quietly add to their positions. This is discussed briefly in today's DMR.
Off to the gym!
Boilermaker
(02/25/03; 15:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98387)
Today's 30 tonner
It occured to me that gold is the only product/commodity/item where the sale of 30 tons (worth about $340 million) is announced with no identification of the seller or buyer and where it causes the market to sell off. If we saw an announcement that a sale of 10 million barrels of oil was completed would we expect the price of oil to decline and would we be denied the identity of the buyer and seller? So much for transparency.
Boilermaker
Waverider
(02/25/03; 14:42:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98386)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
For the most current news analysis...
Mr Gresham
(02/25/03; 14:41:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98385)
Pizz
Adding my congratulations!
You'll know soon enough you've given yourself a great gift.
I knew before we moved that I wanted to get myself (and my kid) far from the all-night sirens, boombox cars, and cruising drug dealers.
I knew I was right, afterward, when the guy who used to cut our lawn was shot down in a drive-by.
Part of what we discuss here in the world of financial "gaming" (scamming?) has to do with how some non-productive people get their hands first on the money the productive people will later have to work for.
That applies in extra measure to cities and the countryside. Somehow, cities have got first dibs on all the cash, and the people outside feel like they have to scramble harder for it.
But the quality-of-life compensations outside the city are greater (and some costs of living -- car insurance went down a bit, etc. etc.) and, if you've got your lifestyle priorities right, you'll come out ahead.
Put a value on $TRE$$ reduction, and you're halfway there.
And, Privacy. That's a lifetime study in itself, for us urban escapees. Get some, and SAVOR it!
Boilermaker
(02/25/03; 14:38:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 98384)
Pizz
Here's a plan:
stake a claim,
get a pick, shovel, box of dynamite, Winchester 94 and a mule (or four wheeler if you're not fond of mules)
sell nuggets to CPM
live small
die old
Good luck
Boilermaker
sector
(02/25/03; 13:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98383)
@Cytek One Half of the Current Wall Street Lie is Dead...
...the Lie about a DOW ZOOM! When the War Starts...The War Started with...
...today's bombing of Mosul's surface-to-surface missile batteries [Reported by Debka]. This isn't the usual anti-radar, no-fly zone, reaction strike, it's in prep for the Turks.
So the DOW seems to have already "discounted" the hostilities and it didn't do what Wall Street Said it would do. Jeeze!
Does this mean that the other half of their current Lie [That gold will go down with hostilities] is similarly Dead?
It would seem so. It will take maybe a full week for the HUI and XAU selling primates to catch-on that they have been had by the bullion banks once again. They were played like a 10 lb. trout on 4-lb. Stren.
When the spike starts the bullion banks will be buying the HUI and XAU with abandon AND they will buy the COMEX way up.
The physical will be drained.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
@Pizz the 30 tonnes was already sold and then absorbed last week...did anybody feel it? ...I didn't think so.
Ernst Welte is at it again over at the ECB. Desperate to convene a Bundesbank "Let's sell the gold" party. He doesn't want to sell gold. He's not getting White-Hot pressure to sell gold. He's being hammered day-in and day-out to DELIVER THE GOLD HE'S ALREADY SOLD. He can't just have muscular goons show up at the vault door to carry out the bars on pallets. Auditors will ask who said you could those bars? You only said you LOANED those bars out? Now you are shipping the gold bars somewhere?
Who authorized that shipment Mr. Weltke? Weltke needs a sale authorization to implement the shipments.
Just look at the pathetic Gordon Brown and his albatross £1 billion gold auction loss [Half UK's gold] to see Earnst Weltke when the German gold "Sales" take place.
Daniel Druff
(02/25/03; 13:26:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98382)
The Hoople
"a new game is coming. They surely know that."
The Chairman certainly knows the tactics and options of a dying fiat system as well as the final result.
However, our leaders in most cases are nothing more than counterfeiting frauds. They've used a credit fiat system to bribe our most important minority which has contributed to the ruination of literally millions of black Americans. They should be horsewhipped...figuratively speaking. And you are correct in saying, "a new game is coming."
But until that time we should not be surprised to see The Fed support various State Bond Floats. Those printing presses are going to get a great workout.
Thank you
mikal
(02/25/03; 13:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 98381)
Oil reserve
http://www.msnbc.com/news/877157.asp?Osi=-
U.S. can quickly release oil reserves
Energy secretary: Feds ready to offset any supply disruptions - Excerpts:
"WASHINGTON, Feb. 25 — U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said on Tuesday the United States was ready to act quickly to release emergency oil reserves if necessary to offset any disruption to Middle East supplies in the event of war with Iraq.....
Abraham said the United States could release emergency reserves independently of its partners in the International Energy Agency, adviser on energy for 26 industrialized countries.
When asked if the United States had ruled out the possibility of releasing emergency oil on its own, Abraham said, "No of course not."
Abraham also said Washington would at least consult with the IEA before taking any decision to release reserves.
The head of the IEA said earlier Tuesday that strategic reserves in major oil-consuming nations will only be used should producers fail to make up any supply shortfall.
"I believe the producers should act first. Reliance on strategic reserves should be a last resort," said Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the Paris-based IEA.
Producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel have told the IEA they have enough spare capacity to meet any stoppage of Iraqi exports if there is a war.
Iraq oil exports remained steady at 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ended to Feb 21, U.N. officials said on Tuesday.
The IEA's Mandil said its members will expect a commitment from OPEC to cover any shortage very quickly, but could wait for "weeks" for firm evidence of the extra output.
Members of the IEA, formed after the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s to protect consumer nations' interests, include the United States, Germany and Japan and it holds four billion barrels of reserves, equivalent to about 115 days of net imports."
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(02/25/03; 12:42:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98380)
The Fruit of Your Labor
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
Q. What is the best approach for the safe-haven investor?
MK. If you want to protect yourself against inflation, deflation, stock market weakness and potential currency problems -- in other words, if an economic disaster is your concern, there is only one portfolio item that will serve you in all seasons and under most circumstances -- gold coins or bullion.
Q. In recent years, we have seen a large number of gold dealers proliferate on the internet. What do you have to say about that?
MK. The internet offers an interesting challenge for the gold buyer. Fly-by-night firms are as big a problem in the gold business as they are in other areas of the investment business. One major problem at the moment are all the one-man-do-it-from-your-basement internet operations that have cropped up in the last few years. How does one know that the individual with whom you are dealing in these situations is legit? We've even heard of instances where some of these people actually have criminal records or have had past problems with regulatory authorities -- like the Federal Trade Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, what does it take to go on-line with a website? Anyone can do it. It's up to the consumer to do their due-diligence before doing business with these operations.
Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?
MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.
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