All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Goldendome (02/26/03; 23:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98486)
Black Blade---More Bones?
I heard rumors today that two large computer component plants located in the Boise, Id. area are closing:
One is named, ZILOG. Don't know what they make specifically, but has to do with computers.
The other name dropped Was, MICRON TECHNOLOGY. That knocked me over, because Boise is Micron's birthplace and may or maynot be, still their World Headquarters. Micron has been hit hard by the "We can make it cheaper than you can" Chineese knockoffs of all their stuff.
I had heard last week, in business news, that Micron was laying off over a thousand people, but where had not been mentioned in the report.
The salesperson passing this information on today, works for an Idaho company; they do business all over the Boise area. I wonder if anyone else has heard this story, rumor, whatever?
Anyway, Could be plenty more bones for the pile.
Black Blade (02/26/03; 21:42:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98485)
Discord over Wall St. settlement
http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/26/news/settlement/index.htm
New Jersey may not go along with December's deal with investment banks as final wording is parsed.
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A $1.5 billion agreement to settle charges that Wall Street firms misled investors by over-hyping stocks faces objections from at least one state. New Jersey is threatening to pull out of the Wall Street analyst conflict of interest settlement, CNNfn has learned. But contrary to an earlier report, Massachusetts is on board. The settlement agreement, announced late in December, would require 12 firms -- including Citigroup (C) unit Salomon Smith Barney, Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch (MER) -- to pay multimillion-dollar fines totaling about $1.5 billion and separate their stock research from their investment banking business.
Black Blade: Apparently these companies don't like the references to "fraud" in the settlement that can leave them open to lawsuits. They don't deny it but they object to the term. Hmmm…
sector (02/26/03; 21:27:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98484)
@CavenMan The Propaganda Machine Rolls!
On!...To the Sudetenland!
With rumors of spec ops troupes in the oilfields and stepped-up new-target-class bombing, we can expect war.
Putin isn't going to be too happy about losing $40 Billion nor are the Germans and the French. Reverbs will be felt for decades. A new "Multi-Polar" world with the newest, flashiest, "Rogue Nation" on the planet marching through Iraq...flowers thrown before them..."Kiss my baby"..."Can I have a Rumsfeld chocolate MRE?"
As for the HUI being hammered, the clever hedge fund shorts may have moved to quickly. Everybody is mesmerized by a DOW Zoom as the war starts [Which it already has] and a pog fall which would drop the shares.
Well the war is on for the 16th and the HUI is way down and not going any further down. So it has to be let up first before a fall can happen in Mid-March. And the DOW has to fall too and then rise in Mid-march.
Well things just may already be discounted all they are going to be in gold shares and it looks to be a massive set-up signal failure for the duped institutions who sold the HUI on this Wall Street drivel.
My view is that the bullion banks want HUI and XAU shares on the cheap BEFORE the hostilities so when gold runs up they profit twice as the hUI runs way past it's former high. The mopes have the excuse that gold always goes up in war. Then they will say it comes down.
Gold comes down?...With at least a Trillion give-or-take deficit...and still counting?
Not this time.
Gandalf the White (02/26/03; 21:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 98483)
ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
To be able to enter either or BOTH of the new CONTESTS, (IF you do not have a FREE POSTING PASSWORD) --- you can get one from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too. There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or Prognostication.
<;-)
misetich (02/26/03; 21:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 98482)
U.S. Says Venezuela Oil Now Unreliable
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030226_2540.html
Snip:
Top State Department officials told a delegation of Venezuelans Wednesday that political disruptions have created serious doubts about the country's reliability as an oil supplier, an administration official said.
...........
"Gentlemen of Washington ... we don't meddle in your internal affairs," Chavez said. "Why does a spokesman have to come out and say they are worried? No, that is Venezuela's business."
Venezuela has been a leading source of U.S. oil imports, accounting last year for about 1.5 million barrels a day. Most analysts place part of the blame for the low supplies of crude and petroleum products in the United States on the loss of Venezuelan oil imports.
*********
Misetich
The consuming nation - who purchases OIL with easily printed paper is complaining,interfering and meddling - Chavez is no fool - he know his enemies - Expect more "unreliable supplies" in months to come -
US foreign policy is being challenged worlwide - the crisis heightning -
OPEC, Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia,European Superpower, Indonesia, Malasya are the most outspoken and visible - many other countries are being forced in the US camp by previous treaties as the US tries to arm twist them in their corner - (they'll never conquer their hearts)
What is the price for belligerence?
Where is the US most vulnerable? The overvalued US $!
Lets stay tuned as the stakes are raised higher each and every day -
PHYSICAL GOLD triumphs in time of crisis -
Got gold?
The Hoople (02/26/03; 20:46:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98481)
Black Blade
I have been fortunate to have taken your sage advice some years ago; get out of debt, plenty of gold,food, etc. Even though I have prepared for this eventuality it still stuns me to see how energy just slams into the economy like a tsunami. I know about trucking budgets, my business fleet is getting slammed. My business propane dealer warned me today my next fill might exceed $2 gal. It was 72 cents in September. You are correct, this problem is being underestimated and the reckoning will have dire consequences. We that prepared at least can sleep a might sounder. Thanks for your contributions always.
21mabry (02/26/03; 20:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 98480)
Thanks to the forum
I have to thank the forum and Black Blade in particular.Several months ago i took a position in mining stocks,at the same time i took a small position in a company that rents rigs and supplies that companies use to explore for natural gas and also oil.As of today I must say it is my best preformer wish I had taken bigger position.thnx again
Waverider (02/26/03; 20:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98479)
YAHOOOO...Gandalf
Another CONTEST!!! But do you think I would ADMIT to buying 30 tons of Gold...okay...but I'm not telling WHERE I hid it! ;o)
PS-Keep an eye on Spot'n Spike - you know how they LOVE these contests!
Gandalf the White (02/26/03; 20:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98477)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !
The Master of the USAGOLD Castle, SIR MK has issued, a "CALL to CONTEST" --- this time a COMBINATION essay and POG Guessing Contest !!
TWO separate contests in ONE with TWO sets of PRIZES to be awarded to the WINNERS !!!
The ESSAY contest writer must confess (in Thirty words or more)
"Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because. . . . . . . . . . . . . ."
The "best, most clever, and most devastating" essay wins a Netherlands GOLDEN "King containing 0.1947 ounces of GOLD, while the "Runner- up" gets an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(Did you see that Rich?)
The POG CONTEST rules are set forth below and the WINNING PRIZE will be a GOLDEN Napoleon the First (Bonaparte himself) French 20 Franc piece (carried at many battles by --guess who), worth about $100. The two "Runners-up's" will each get an one ounce PURE silver Canadian Maple Leaf.
(OK, Rich, Did you see that?)
====
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- An ESSAY CONTEST "Discussion Statement" (confession), and a Price Prognostication!
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) APRIL 2003 Gold Contract (GC3J) on the date of THURSDAY, the 13th of March, 2003.
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON (12:00) on Tuesday, March 11th, 2003.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication --- YOUR confession as an entry in the ESSAY contest !
---
LET the CONTESTS begin !
<;-)
Cavan Man (02/26/03; 19:48:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98476)
You've got to be kidding!
I'm paying attention; and you?
Bush Says Replacing Hussein Would Aid Mideast Peace (Update3)
By Heidi Przybyla and Holly Rosenkrantz
Washington, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush, seeking to build support for an attack on Iraq, linked replacing Saddam Hussein with a democratic government to fostering stability and peace throughout the Middle East.
``A new regime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom to other nations of the region,'' Bush told the American Enterprise Institute. The ``direct and growing threat'' posed by Iraq must end, by force if necessary, and the U.S. would remain ``as long as necessary'' to rebuild ``a free and peaceful Iraq,'' he said.
ElGordo (02/26/03; 19:01:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 98475)
S Korean economy stalls
Seoul, Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- South Korean factory production shrank for the first time in four months in January, reflecting slowing demand for telecommunications equipment, machinery and chemical products.
Production fell a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent after increasing a revised 1.3 percent in December, the National Statistical Office said in a statement. That was the first contraction since September and a bigger decline than the 0.5 percent drop predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News Survey.
Consumers are spending less as they find it harder to borrow after the government tightened lending rules on concern rising household debt posed a threat to the banking system in Asia's fourth-largest economy. Sales at retailers such as Hyundai Department Store Co. fell at a record pace in December and household debt shrank for first time in two years last month.
``What we're seeing are clear signs that the economy is worsening as consumer spending and exports slow, while stockpiles rise,'' said Lee Sang Jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities Co.
__________
S Korea was the bright spot in Asia-but its going down the tubes
now as well. Its looking like a global recession for sure.
ElGordo (02/26/03; 18:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98474)
Nikkei at 20 year lows
Tokyo, Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell to a 20-year low, led by banks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., after some lenders planned to sell more preferred shares, which may dilute future earnings per share.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, the nation's second-biggest lender, yesterday said it increased a share sale by 15 percent. Resona Holdings Inc., the nation's No. 5 bank, plans to raise an additional 120 billion yen ($1.02 billion) through new stock, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported.
The share sales by banks ``simply underscores how desperate they are'' to boost their capital, said Katsuaki Furutachi, who helps manage about $1.3 billion in Japanese equities at Asahi Life Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. A slump in stock prices is a ``manifestation of concerns there may be a financial crisis.''
TownCrier (02/26/03; 18:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98473)
Last of Administration's original economic team heads out the door
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,79715,00.html
HEADLINE: Key Architect of Bush Tax Cut Plan Resigns
Wednesday, February 26, 2003
WASHINGTON — Glenn Hubbard, the chief architect of the Bush administration's tax cut package, announced his resignation Wednesday as head of the president's Council of Economic Advisers.
The White House released a one-page letter from Hubbard saying that Friday would be his last day as chairman of the three-member council.
While Hubbard's resignation had been expected, it comes at a sensitive time for the White House. The administration is trying to persuade Congress to pass a $674 billion economic stimulus plan that Hubbard had a major hand in developing.
...Bush in early December shook up his economic team by demanding the resignations of Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and Lawrence Lindsey, director of the president's National Economic Council.
That council coordinates economic policy in the executive branch. Hubbard's team, usually made up of experts with doctorates in economics, provides analysis of administration proposals.
------(see url for article)-----
The White House has indicated that Harvard University's Gregory Mankiw is intended to step into the vacated position.
R.
mikal (02/26/03; 18:21:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 98472)
@RPowell- Poetic justice?
I'll wait at least a few more years if need be. Especially if April 1st- "April Fools Day" is time for a significant resistance level, even a fabled "critical" support to be penetrated. And POS this week has returned to an upward trend that resembles the "controlled ascent" of a few weeks back. But if this timing occurs, perhaps all eyes will look to China, when real events in dollar terms, play out across the sea.
CoBra(too) (02/26/03; 18:07:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98471)
TC - 30 Tonnes from Portugal sold?
... Portugal did not, as you've stated have any part in the 400t/pa according to the WA, valid for 5 years for a total of 2.000 tonnes. The total sales have been spoken for by the SNB, OeNB and Dutch CB.
Mr. Welteke has been complaining regularily for some time now to be excluded from potential sales under the agreement, well knowing that half of Germany's gold is committed (see 1.700 deep storage at West Point) ... and recently we've learned that Portugal's stash is up to 70% committed as well.
... Smacks of covering the tracks - since real gold is already gone from the vaults - Leasing, forwards and derivative gamblings on the Nations Gold is akin to outright sale:
Or selling your soul to the devil - or is it the axis of evil? ... Define or re-define the sublime charactirazation of - hey, sorry not slime, though the axis of weasels may go pop, or survive to see ... reality.
Not sure - what to expect, though pretty sure, what to believe ... cb2
- and forgive me to interfere ... won't be tempted again - hopefully ...
R Powell (02/26/03; 17:53:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 98470)
Shanghai not Shnaghai
Sorry, I know my spelling is somewhat sloppy but I certainly don't mean to offend by misspelling Shanghai.
R Powell (02/26/03; 17:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98469)
Shnaghai exchange and silver
I just rode over from the neighbors where a fellow named Captainhook mentioned that the Chinese exchange will start selling silver as of April 1st (April fool's day). I have been wondering about this date and now wonder if anyone can confirm it?
Will this boost the POS as the opening of gold possession to the Chinese did for gold? I can't think of any reasons why it wouldn't. Does anyone have any numbers on the amount of gold sold in the newly opened Chinese markets?
Thoughts, links or confirmation?
Thanks,
Rich
CoBra(too) (02/26/03; 17:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98468)
Too Big to Fail ...
Well, of course @ Zisheng - that's exactly as I would see it. Though, the main problem still lingers, which may be the unforseen collision with an ice floe (doesn't even have to be the proverbial berg the Titanic encountered by speeding along to N.Y.).
A li'l ole unconvential disaster as portrayed by Tim Wood in his essay on brinkmanship of Newmont may be enough to do the trick - and the whole shorting and forward scam may be uncovered for all to see. Munk, Taylor and the rest of the forward gang will be caught 'inflagrante'. And that's the last thing the cartel gang will have considered, ever. Caught in their own trap - as even the ESF or any other agency can produce the real stuff - Gold!
cb2
PS: Wky Woodsman - re Argentina - Afghan Pipeline ... I can only reply to send you the pertinent paragraph in the interview and will also try to verify the subject matter. I've really only tzranslated an article I found of substance (with or without the Arg. intervention).
physicalman (02/26/03; 17:15:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98467)
Daniel Druff
DD, In my earlier post to you i stated the % recycling out of throwaway cameras. I know that the photos developed use silver that will probably never be recovered. Thought everyone knew that so it went without me saying it. I was only talking about the film used to take the pictures. What difference does it make if one uses a throwaway or a standard camera, most of the silver in the initial film gets recycled and virtually all of the silver for developed photos is never recovered. I was just trying to make a point about how little difference there was in the use of throwaways compared to standard cameras. To me the big waste in throwaways is the plastic (made from petroleum). I do not consider the use of silver for taking photos or other uses a thing to be stopped. This is America and as far i remember there was not law or regulation to stop someone from recording images of their life and relationships on film. The big crime, or unethical standard in the silver situation we are facing in the near future is the manipulations of the spot and future prices and the enviro restrictions that stop profitable domestic silver mining in its tracks, the same as petroleum, other base and precious metals, timber and arriving/soon to arrive to private timber and farmlands. I would dare to say that i am one of the biggest silver enthusiasts at this site and possibly others and have a pretty large position (physical) to back it up. I hold precious metals for 3 reasons
1: I have always been a collector/hoarder, hoarding part is probably not normal but thats just me. Needless to say though if silver goes to 100 bucks an oz. and the paper dollar will still buy something at that time i will sell some but not all my position.
2: The protection of my previous labours, if i actually increase my wealth that would just be a bonus.
3: If TSHTF my preperations will allow me to help many people at a time when humanity will be suffering terribly
My biggest fear would be confiscation as i do not have large postions in PM stocks. I'm not fussing at you, or arguing. Lord knows i definitly not the smartest on the block and have learned greatly from you and many other posters. I just believe that with physical and no need to sell for day to day living that the only trump card we have is patience! Look at my posts on Jan. 10th,21st,22nd,23rd,24th and you will see more of my line of thinking/right or wrong.
Trojan (02/26/03; 17:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98465)
North Korea Reactivates Nuclear Reactor
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26326880
Russia and China block UN Meeting. Just occured in last few hours. Wonder if it will affect Japan Market in Gold and Stocks. I would think it would.
GO SPOT and SPIKE...
Topaz (02/26/03; 16:49:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98464)
@ Town Crier.
I didn't express myself very well in the post to S-me Randy...originally the Link went straight to what they've now defined as "historic".
You are correct...nil problemo...as usual <smile>
TownCrier (02/26/03; 16:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98463)
Topaz, I am trying to understand your earlier link comments
When I click the gold lease link located to the upper-right on the forum page, I find that I am indeed met directly with the proper LBMA page which displays the day's spot fix as well as the financing rates for the day. If you are not seeing the lease rates on that page, just scroll about one inch and look below the table that contains the gold and silver fixing data. (To see more than these lease rate stats for the current day, then yes, the url you have provided becomes necessary for the history)
Have I missed something?
R.
TownCrier (02/26/03; 16:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98462)
Belgian
I have a question for you if you are interested, but I don't want to pull you out of your relaxing lurking status reluctantly or prematurely. Because you are closer to the scene in Europe, I was hoping you might have come across some insights that have eluded me regarding this detail of the European's 1999 central bank agreement on gold.
Item #2 states:
"The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales."
Specifically, the World Gold Council elaborated on the Agreement shortly after it was made public. The WGC offered these words:
"We understand that the quotas are not transferable, i.e. if the Swiss decide not to sell 1300 tonnes in the next five years but instead only 1000 tonnes, then no other institution can sell the remaining 300 tonnes. On the other hand, we have also been informed on good authority that the intention to sell 2,000 tonnes will be fulfilled."
Central Banking Publications, Ltd. echoed that sentiment.
Up until recent times, the prevailing thought being offered among publically accessible gold insiders (if there truly is such a thing) was that the 2000 tonne quota was spoken-for according to the following numbers.
UK === 365 tonnes [which was subsequently pared back to 345 tonnes]; selling completed.
Austria === 90 tonnes; selling reported complete
the Netherlands === 300 tonnes; 136 tonnes sold as of the three-year point
Switzerland === 1,300 tonnes, of which only 1,245 allocated under the Agreement; selling still open
As we know, there have been deviations from this list of participants, with first Germany, and now Portugal being revealed as sellers "consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement" as the Eurosystem characterizes it.
Perhaps this only reveals the misjudgements of the "experts" about the sources of "already decided sales", or else it reveals a little more wiggle room within the agreement than first thought -- particularly with regard to the transferring of quotas from one signatory to another.
To my mind, because the UK publically switched their program mid-stream, the subsequent unanticipated sales by Germany of 23 tonnes seems in hindsight like a coordinated transfer of the UK's 20-tonne allocation shortcoming.
Now it is most recently revealed through Reuters that the 30 tonne sale that the Eurosystem reported as "consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement" was a (publicly unanticipated) result of an operation by the Bank of Portugal -- a signatory that was noticeably absent from the experts' original list of quota allocations of those "already decided sales" from September 1999.
Not that it really matters one way or another to the outside world which banks partcipate in the selling within the overall 2000 tonne program, but it seems to me that if this truly represents a reallocation among members from the original plans, the reason behind the changes may be instructive. Are the original sellers opting prematurely out of their sales? Or is their outside pressure -- are other signatory countries with unduly perverse budget positions clamoring for a needful leg up -- a piece of the pie?
There may be nothing here, so any insights from you would be appreciated. Comment only as it might be convenient or of interest to you.
R.
Topaz (02/26/03; 16:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98461)
Bonds and Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14
As the Yield curve deteriorates, Mr G's comments today re: deposit insurance etc. could signal he's loath to reduce rates further thus depriving "life-support" to those engaged in the discount window, Bond reinvestment carry trade.
Those watching will recall the 4.65% "triple-bottom" in early Oct '02 - immediately followed by a 50bp rate cut...we again approach this critical juncture, the difference now is that shorter maturities are at their lower levels already and a longbond move much lower will upset the Applecart...a wholesale move to Cash.
These ARE historic times!
Golden Bear (02/26/03; 16:08:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98460)
Black Blade (msg#: 98454)
Hi BB,
I had the same problem with spam. Koreans got a hold of my email address and have been spamming me relentlessly for about 12 months.
A program called mailwasher allows you to check all your emails on the server before you download them, and add spammers to a blacklist. Much more efficient than adding filters in your mail program.
The tyrannosaurus line is a beauty....
Cheers,
GB.
Black Blade (02/26/03; 16:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98459)
Oops!
The link in the last post is the regional spot NatGas prices for today. Tomorrow we get the draw from last week's storage.
BTW, spot is looking a bit frisky again in after hours.
- Black Blade
Black Blade (02/26/03; 15:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 98458)
21mabry
http://www.enerfax.com/
I am certainly no apologist for the Bush's but to be fair, the current economic/energy crisis resulted from years of lax standards and miscalculations. Even the most ardent anti-Bush people would have to admit that the current President inherited a deepening recession (started before Dubya took the oath of office) resulting from a bursting speculative bubble and rising energy costs. I had stated before the election on numerous occasions that no matter who won the race for the presidency, the next president would be our generation's "Herbert Hoover". It looks like that scenario is playing out. We can only look out for ourselves because no one else will. It is ever more important than ever to increase our portfolio insurance positions with a healthy dose of precious metals.
Cheers!
- Black Blade
Off to the gym!
Waverider (02/26/03; 15:20:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98456)
Record Energy Prices May Pinch U.S. Consumer Spending
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APl0zIxW4UmVjb3Jk
Snip:
"Higher energy costs may restrict consumer and business spending at a time when growth has slowed, economists said. Almost half of all Americans consider the cost and availability of energy to be a ``crisis'' or a ``major problem,'' according to a Gallup poll released yesterday. Wieting estimates that U.S. consumers' spending on gasoline, heating oil and natural gas is currently running at an annual pace that is $50 billion higher than a year ago. That's about 0.7 percent of disposable personal income, which could be a ``meaningful drag'' on an economy that grew at a 0.7 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, he said. The supply situation may not improve anytime soon. The amount of gas in storage is down 47 percent from a year ago after months of cold weather. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect the Energy Department to report tomorrow that inventories fell another 13 percent last week to 1.012 trillion cubic feet. That would be the lowest since May 2001."
Waverider: Since I started participating here I am acutely aware that news I hear in the mainstream media more often than not has already been discussed here. Numerous times I wake up to the CBC morning business analysis to hear discussion of topics that were covered here in previous weeks, months, and yes... even years! Such is the attached story - thanks Black Blade and others for keeping us on the cutting edge! One can just sit back and smile...
Black Blade (02/26/03; 14:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98454)
From The Mailbag
The following courtesy of Bill Bonner (DailyReckoning)
In the second half of 2002, Finance Asia.com reports, the average U.S. homebuyer made a down payment of only 7% of the purchase price, and uses 40% of household income to pay the mortgage. Housing prices are the highest percentage of average earnings in U.S. history, while the homeowner's equity is the lowest it has ever been.
"This is unsustainable," the article continues, "and will end just as badly or even worse than the tech bubble did."
But how? So far, home refinancing has saved the U.S. economy - but only by luring the homeowner deeper into debt. Sooner or later, someone will be ruined by it - either the fellow making the loan or the fellow taking it. Maybe both. Either the burden of debt will be eased by Bernanke's printing presses...or it will crush the homeowner as real rates rise in a deflationary slump. We'll have to wait to find out...
Black Blade: I tend to agree. The real estate bubble is reaching the breaking point and should the Fed "reflate" we could see the RE bubble deflate rather quickly. I do get some interesting email from various sources even though I find that I have to filter through and delete a lot of spam lately. It seems that there are those out in cyberspace concerned enough for my sex life that they want to have me view their latest porn or buy pills and devices to make me a sexual tyrannosaurus. Almost gone are the endless emails of "get rich quick" schemes I used to get. Nevertheless the Internet is quite a valuable resource for relevant and timely information in order to keep up with changing dynamics in the market place and I do get a lot of interesting info sent my way.
Waverider (02/26/03; 14:28:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98453)
VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"Gold remains underpinned by weak equities markets, a weak U.S. dollar, rising energy costs, and rising geopolitical tensions. Longer term the fundamental case for gold remains very strong as mine production is in a long term decline against current strong demand of 3,900 tons vs. 2,500 tons from mine supply with the rest of demand presumably satisfied by bank and scrap sales. Miners will not be able to quickly ramp up production after years of high grading deposits and years of little exploration to replace rapidly depleting reserves."
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (02/26/03; 14:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 98452)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html
Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?
MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.
Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?
MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"
Beowulf (02/26/03; 14:12:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98451)
Cash for the final ANWR push
http://www.news-miner.com/Stories/0,1413,113%257E7252%257E1203368,00.html?search=filter
Looks like another try at opening ANWR to exploration.
-Beowulf
Beowulf (02/26/03; 14:06:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98450)
War poses hard choices about oil
http://www.news-miner.com/Stories/0,1413,113~7252~1205844,00.html
Snip *
Since 1973, when the first oil shock hit the industrial world, no feasible oil substitutes have been developed. Electric power and space heating have oil alternatives, but fuel for cars, planes, boats and trains is derived mainly from oil.
We don't have economically feasible oil substitutes, even though plenty of research and development dollars have gone into these alternatives from government, big oil and many smaller firms. That is why in the 30 years since the first oil shock, oil substitutes technology has been relatively marginal, especially in comparison to information technology. We still depend on oil.
... * Un-Snip
-B
Black Blade (02/26/03; 14:05:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98449)
Hoople - Rising Energy
The market is waking up to more fundamental energy issues other than Iraq. Oil and distillate inventories show another decline (I haven't gone through all the gory details yet). Refineries are having a hard time keeping up with heating oil commitments while scrambling to prepare for maintenance shutdowns in preparation for gasoline refining operations (which should be underway by now). This bottleneck almost guarantees much higher gasoline prices this summer.
A couple of energy execs I talked to recently said that $3/gallon unleaded is not out of the question this summer. Also, truckers are grumbling louder about high diesel costs impacting their bottomline. It will of course get much worse and as there is no pricing power these costs will likely eat into manufacturers and truckers bottomlines until it is unbearable and eventually must be passed along to the consumer.
The NatGas picture is even more dire as cold temps continue to plague the Midwest and east coast regions (with more on the way). A prominent NG analyst came out with a projection of NatGas storage levels under 400 bcf (an all time record) by the end of heating season. He also noted that rig counts remain unacceptably low. Now where have we heard that before? Several other analysts are coming to similar conclusions with dire predictions as well.
It should be noted that the Senate and House are beginning investigations into "price gouging" (for political mileage I would guess) and to discuss ways to increase energy production. However, it's way too late to head off a severe energy crisis. There simply are not enough rigs in existence and land access as well as infrastructure limits the ability to increase necessary output. The real worry is not so much energy availability in the short to intermediate term, but what happens next winter when we enter heating season with woefully inadequate storage.
We are facing economic meltdown as energy is the lifeblood that keeps the patient alive. Unfortunately there is not enough blood in the bloodbank. The lights are dimming on the life support monitors. The prognosis is very "grim".
Get prepared and insure your investment portfolios with a healthy position in Gold and Silver. The equities markets are breaking under the strain of poor performance and rising costs. And as always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.
- Black Blade
TownCrier (02/26/03; 14:05:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98448)
Deposit Insurance Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2003/20030226/default.htm
[Note to steady, regarding your (2/26/03; 08:16:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98428):
Because your attempt to post the whole speech was truncated due to length, and because Dow Jones might view it as a copyright violation because it bears their tagline, I've taken the liberty to replace your post with this one in which I've provided the link (above) to Chairman Greenspan's speech at the Fed's website where it can be read in its complete form.]
Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate
February 26, 2003
Key excerpt:
The benefits of deposit insurance, as significant as they are, have not come without a cost. The very process that has ended deposit runs has made insured depositors largely indifferent to the risks taken by their depository institutions, just as it did with depositors in the 1980s with regard to insolvent, risky thrift institutions. The result has been a weakening of the market discipline that insured depositors would otherwise have imposed on institutions. Relieved of that discipline, depositories naturally feel less cautious about taking on more risk than they would otherwise assume. No other type of private financial institution is able to attract funds from the public without regard to the risks it takes with its creditors' resources. This incentive to take excessive risks at the expense of the insurer, and potentially the taxpayer, is the so-called moral hazard problem of deposit insurance.
Thus, two offsetting implications of deposit insurance must be kept in mind. On the one hand, it is clear that deposit insurance has contributed to the prevention of bank runs that could have destabilized the financial structure in the short run. On the other, even the current levels of deposit insurance may have already increased risk-taking at insured depository institutions to such an extent that future systemic risks have arguably risen.
Indeed, the reduced market discipline and increased moral hazard at depositories have intensified the need for government supervision to protect the interests of taxpayers and, in essence, substitute for the reduced market discipline. Deposit insurance and other components of the safety net also enable banks and thrift institutions to attract more resources, at lower costs, than would otherwise be the case. In short, insured institutions receive a subsidy in the form of a government guarantee that allows them both to attract deposits at lower interest rates than would be necessary without deposit insurance and to take more risk without the fear of losing their deposit funding. Put another way, deposit insurance misallocates resources by breaking the link between risks and rewards for a select set of market competitors.
In sum, from the very beginning, deposit insurance has involved a tradeoff. Deposit insurance contributes to overall short-term financial stability and the protection of small depositors. But at the same time, because it also subsidizes deposit growth and induces greater risk-taking, deposit insurance misallocates resources and creates larger long-term financial imbalances that increase the need for government supervision to protect the taxpayers' interests. Deposit insurance reforms must balance these tradeoffs. Moreover, any reforms should be aimed primarily at protecting the interest of the economy overall and not just the profits or market shares of particular businesses.
The Federal Reserve Board believes that deposit insurance reforms should be designed to preserve the benefits of heightened financial stability and the protection of small depositors without a further increase in moral hazard or reduction in market discipline. In addition, we urge that the implementing details be kept as straightforward as possible to minimize the risk of unintended consequences that comes with complexity.
(see link for speech)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (02/26/03; 13:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98447)
Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...
In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:
"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."
Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:
1. They averted disaster in the stock market.
2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.
News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.
If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.
The Hoople (02/26/03; 13:23:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98446)
Energy price explosion
Crude +5%, heating oil +5%, nat. gas +10%. Wowser. Gold should have enjoyed a $30 rise by comparison instead of once more boxed in a $2 collar. Someday the lid will be coming off. It will be a sight to behold.
Wky_Woodsman (02/26/03; 13:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98445)
COBRA(too)
Thanks for your reply. I've spent some time going through English language versions of Galtung. So far not one iota of Argentina and the pipeline.
Gold, oil, power.
Wky
ElGordo (02/26/03; 12:47:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98444)
Portugal is not out of Gold yet
LISBON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Portugal has sold 30 tonnes of its gold reserves this month, the central bank said in a statement.
The bank said the sale was aimed at diversifying the country's external reserves, similar to previous announced sales.
The bank will retain proceeds in a special reserve. The sales were carried out as part of an agreement among central banks.
sector (02/26/03; 12:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98443)
@Danial Druff A Significant Amount of Photographic Silver...
...is recovered
Medical x-ray film accounts for a large fraction of silver usage and there is an efficient recovery methodology installed at nearly every hospital, clinic and out-patient film use location. While the films themselves must be archived for years, as they come off archive requirements they are promptly run through the recovery anodic process. Films with large clear areas yield the most silver.
Estimnated of 30-40% recovery rates aren't out of the ball park.
ElGordo (02/26/03; 12:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98442)
American Airlines going BK?
DALLAS (Reuters) - Shares in American Airlines parent company AMR Corp. AMR.N were off about 7 percent in trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, as fears of war and higher fuel costs hit the world's largest carrier.
Wall Street analysts said a newspaper story also caught the eyes of some investors.
The Dallas Morning News reported the union representing pilots at American seeing AMR going bankrupt at the end of May. Although the report gathered some attention, the union and the airline both dismissed the story as being inaccurate and not reflecting official positions.
AMR shares were off about 7 percent or 20 cents to $2.64. Shares in other airlines were also down, but not as much as AMR's.
The Hoople (02/26/03; 12:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98441)
Orwellian commodity reporting
WSJ commodity report on nat. gas:
"New York Mercantile Exchange futures fell sharply, with the exception of the runaway March contract.....".
Can't you see the report on gold or silver one day?
"Gold futures collapsed, with the exception of the physical spot market which gained another $100...".
Disinformation can be strange indeed.
Daniel Druff (2/26/03; 11:32:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98440)
Deposit Insurance
One sector who could use a little Deposit Insurance would be the Bullion Banks; many will look to their Central Bank for relief when it comes to making them whole regarding bullion. The CB's could let them settle with paper which will be printed up and loaned to them at a modest rate of interest...if they're in the right club.
Those printing presses sure do solve a lot of problems...wish I had one.
Thank you
goldfool (2/26/03; 11:06:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 98439)
Counting on your fixed-benefit retirement plan to anchor your retirement income??????......Think again if the Bush administration gets it way.......
http://my.juno.com/s/lc?s=145100&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2003%2F02%2F26%2Fbusiness%2F26PENS.html%3Fex%3D1047531600%26en%3D66924671ba791d74%26ei%3D5004%26partner%3DUNTD
The Bush administration's pension plan outlined in the linked article above sounds good for most middle income workers however there appears to be another side of the story which is not getting the headlines:
Molly Ivins: Rescue your pension plan
By Molly Ivins
Published 2:15 a.m. PST Tuesday, February 25, 2003
AUSTIN, Texas -- You ain't no John Snow when it comes to pensions. Snow, our new treasury secretary, was CEO of the railroad company CSX Corp. and got a platinum parachute when he bailed. He gets $2.47 million a year for life in retirement benefits. This package was based on the premise that he'd worked for the company for 44 years, even though he'd been there only 25. Now that's creative accounting.
Plus, CSX decided to let him factor in the stock benefits he had received as regular income, instead of just salary, as is normally done. At the same time CSX was giving Snow this lovely deal, it was cutting the health benefits in its retirement plan for lesser workers. Since Secretary Snow is now in charge of pension policy at the Treasury, can we look forward to similar deals for ourselves? Nope, we're in the class that gets the cuts.
The Bush administration has a plan (those are rapidly becoming the six most chilling words in the English language) to de-improve your pension. It allows companies to switch from traditional fixed-benefit retirement plans to what's called the cash-balance pension plan. You will be unsurprised to learn that corporations just love it because it saves them millions of dollars a year, as much as $100 million in the case of huge companies.
Under the administration's proposed rules, companies can eat away at the retirement benefits they owe workers by using "reasonable" interest rates and mortality rates to calculate the value of a pension as the company converts to the cash-balance scheme. Presto: Hey, look honey, I shrunk your retirement package.
The cash-balance plan is particularly harmful to older workers, so if you've got any gray hair, you might want to take a look at what they're about to do to you. Under fixed-benefit plans, retirement is based on the employee's salary and years of work at the company. This gives older workers a chance to rack up benefits. When companies started switching to cash-balance plans, the AARP, the Pension Rights Center, the AFL-CIO and other groups set up a mighty holler. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission received over 800 age-discrimination complaints. As a result, the IRS stopped approving these conversions in 1999.
But the Bush administration, operating on its cardinal principle -- Whatever Bill Clinton Did Was Wrong -- has naturally decided to reverse course. If Clinton did it, it can't be good (and what splendid results they've gotten so far), so the new rules will give companies that convert to cash-balance plans a tax advantage, as well as giving them protection from age-discrimination suits. Don't you love it? The perfect Bush plan: They get to screw workers and get a tax break, and nobody is allowed to sue.
More than 200 members of Congress have written Bush asking him not to let the proposed rules become law. The General Accounting Office did a study showing that annual pension benefits of older workers can drop by as much as 50 percent under the new plan.
There is a 90-day period for "public comments" on the proposed rules, and it might well behoove you to put pen to paper over this one. The public comment period ends March 13. You can call the Treasury Department at (202) 622-6090 or 6030 to find how to submit a comment. The Communication Workers of America website also has some how-to advice: It's at www.allianceibm.org/pension/treasuryletters.htm.
Rep. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, has a bill to require companies that are going to convert to allow their employees to choose which plan works best for them. The bill requires companies to provide workers detailed information that allows them to make an apples-to-apples comparison.
If you're wondering why you haven't heard much about this, let me suggest two reasons. One is that TV news is in its one-story, Dead Diana mode: All they have time for is Iraq and the occasional nightclub fire. The second is the consequence of having all the media owned by a few giant corporations. It is not in the interest of these corporations to have such news widely reported.
Am I suggesting (gasp!) censorship? Nope, just that even though this affects millions of people, those millions are not a large percentage of the total television audience, and pension de-form is not as gripping as war or nightclub fires. That's the way media gigantism affects news. You can't save your pension with duct tape, so get on this.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zhisheng (2/26/03; 11:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 98438)
@Cobra(too) and Jing Zu
TO BIG TO FAIL
How about if the big bank is part owner of the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank (of whom Greenspan himself is director)?
As I recall Morgan/Chase is still part owner, and so this question is not entirely academic.
a nation of one (2/26/03; 10:57:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98436)
Comment on steady's msg#: 98428
Mister Greenspan says: "Deposit insurance was adopted in this country as part of the legislative effort to limit the impact of the Great Depression on the public."
--The statement is not true. Deposit insurance was passed into law in order to prevent future occurrences similar to those which followed the stock market crash of 1929, specifically, to prevent runs on banks during future crises. Whether benefits to the public were intended is moot and insignificant. What is really happening is that Alan is subtly implying that deposit insurance need have no place in today's economics. In this way, then, it will be easier to abandon. To do so would enable today's banks to fail without the Fed or the government having to step in. If that happens, then the deposit insurance policy could be termed a "summertime law," good only as long as things go well, and disbandable as soon as it might have to be applied on a large scale. This interpretation of Mr. Greenspan's remarks makes sense because of recent events and the implications which they portend, namely, the substantial economic troubles which we all know are foreseeable on the near horizon, and against which no government on earth is sufficiently large to manage or prevent.
Jing Zu (2/26/03; 10:11:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98435)
Hold that Phisical!
Don't let go.....
It is happening!
Jing Zu (2/26/03; 10:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98434)
Greenspan Says No Bank Too Big to Fail
http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20030226/hle_bus-n26271051.html
Wednesday February 26, 11:22 AM EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday that no U.S. bank was too big to fail, but that federal authorities have to move more cautiously when liquidating assets of large institutions.
"I agree that there is no such concept of too big to fail," Greenspan said in answer to questions before the Senate Banking Committee. "What there is, however, is that very large institutions will be liquidated slowly."
"So the time issue is the question here, not whether an institution is ... too big to fail," he said.
CoBra(too) (2/26/03; 10:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 98433)
Greenspan: No Bank is too big to Fail!
http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20030226/hle_bus-n26271051.html
Hear, hear,
albeit the demise may be slowed down.
Sage words from the banskter of last resort - alas i don't believe it, as the FED was introduced to keep the member banks of the cartel afloat at any means. I guess JPM/Chase et al are already plotting to dump the man, who has danced to their tune for too long to turn colors in his last year. After all, Bernake is waiting in the wings and he surely knows how to work the technology of a printing press.
GBIYHIOTF - cb2
Socrates964 (2/26/03; 09:55:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98432)
Newmont
Agree - v interesting article.
In NEM's shoes, and assuming the gold bull market continues, makes sense for management to walk away from this project - since this will boost share price and allow the company to raise cash through a rights issue at a multiple of earnings. It can then use this to replace the lost ounces through acquisitions.
Presumably, a forced bankruptcy would also result in a hit to JPM/CSFB's balance sheet. The question is whether they are including NEM's mark-to-market loss in their own profits - if so, the hit to their BS could be much greater.
This deal nevertheless looks so unfavorable to Normandy that it leads to the conclusion that either a) management were paid under the table for signing it, b) they never intended to honor it.
Any thoughts?
CoBra(too) (2/26/03; 09:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98431)
From the Mogambo Guru - GBIYHIOTF -
His latest piece concludes:
*And that brings me back to, predictably, gold bullion. You want an acronym? I'll give you one. GBIYHIOTF. "Gold Bullion In Your Hand Is Your Only True Friend." *
An honorable knighthood of the castle for Mogambo is recommended - cb2
The Traveler (2/26/03; 09:28:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98430)
@ Black Blade #98422
The true nature of domestic natural gas production is beyond severe. Consider just these three points.
First, beginning about 1988, 3D seismic was shot across thousands and thousands of square miles of known producing regions like Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma as well as offshore looking for more reserves. Based upon AVO signatures and other attributes, producers have drilled nearly all the "A" prospects generated (read: the sure things). Thus the more risky, smaller, deeper and less defined "B" and "C" prospects are all that is left in inventory. Where as the producers kept 100% of the "A" prospects for themselves, they are promoting the "B" and "C" prospects to others. The "A" prospects are what kept daily deliverability of gas high and thus postponed until now the crisis.
Second, in Jan-2001 when natural gas futures hit $10/mcf, producers took advantage of this price spike and ramped up production by opening the wellhead chokes to wide open. For example, Exxon blew down the gas caps on its Tom O'Connor, Katy and Sheridan Fields thus producing an incremental 100 BCF or better in a month or two. This action saved the 2001 heating season just as a warmer than average 2002 winter saved that season.
Lastly, through Wall Street driven consolidations, the overall number of service companies have shrunk thus reducing price competition. For example, five drillers control 95% of all the land rigs capable of drilling deeper than 10,000 feet. Each have comparably HIGH day rates for a rig. These costs from service companies weigh heavy on the cost-benefit, risk-reward analysis of a prospect. The exploration business is by nature a capital entensive (capital burning) industry.
Given the above and other factors effecting gas storage, I predict $15 per 1,000 BTU gas prices during this summer's cooling season and $20 prices during the upcoming heating season. If next winter is colder than average, gas prices will go higher still because of structual limitations on daily deliverability.
Got physical gas. Got physical gold.
Are you giant-like yet?
Old Yeller (2/26/03; 09:08:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 98429)
Newmont,brinkmanship with bullion banks?
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256CD9000F7127?OpenDocument
Some profound developments may be contained in this story.
Simply Me (2/26/03; 08:11:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98427)
Thanks, Topaz
I've bookmarked it.
simply
Cavan Man (2/26/03; 05:30:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 98426)
Black Blade
Perhaps that 30 tons had already been sold or they are announcing what won't be coming back to the vault due to leasing as per sector's commentary?
Black Blade (2/26/03; 04:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98425)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
US market index futures are sharply lower, however, like clockwork index futures are rapidly ticking upward on the suspicious and sudden appearance of index futures buying even though there is no economic or geopolitical news. The USD is slightly higher as countries battle on to weaken their own currencies against each other. Gold is slightly higher in spite of the Bank of Portugal 30 ton gold sale announced yesterday. Oil is higher on the Malaysian PMs calls for OPEC to use the "Oil Weapon" against the west in support of Iraq and NatGas is lower on profit taking as the March contract ends today.
- Black Blade
Topaz (02/26/03; 02:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98424)
Lease rates@Simply
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2003gofo.htm
That will get you to the 2003 L/R page (Gold) to give some Historical perspective.
Topaz (02/26/03; 02:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98423)
@Simply
Your lease rates link is atop this Forum page (RH side "Gold Lease").
...'tis a bit of a struggle getting there as LBMA have recently reconfigured their site...perhaps Sir TC can rejig the Link?
Black Blade (02/26/03; 01:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 98422)
Statement by the American Chemistry Council on Natural Gas Prices
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003022500056n4476&SA=Latest%20News
Snippit:
ARLINGTON, Va., Feb 25, 2003 (U.S. Newswire via COMTEX) -- The following is a statement by the American Chemistry Council on natural gas prices:
Today, the Senate Energy Committee is holding a hearing on natural gas supplies. The hearing could not come at a more important time. Yesterday, the spot price for natural gas reached its highest in history and supplies are at an all-time low. The American Chemistry Council, the nation's largest user of natural gas, released the following statement:
America has a new energy crisis. This time it is the runaway price of natural gas. Congress must act now to ease the natural gas crisis or the nation's fragile economic recovery will return to recession. Every recession since World War II has been preceded by a run-up in energy prices. Today, we are witnessing an unprecedented increase in natural gas prices. If the price of milk topped $16 a gallon, Congress would not hesitate to act. Today, natural gas prices are equivalent to $16 for a gallon of milk, $12.70 for a pound of ground beef, and $9.21 for a gallon of gasoline. Every American will feel the effect of skyrocketing natural gas prices in the form of more expensive food, higher home heating prices, and higher prices for most consumer products. Natural gas is to the economy as water is to an ecosystem. And today, America is facing the worst drought in natural gas stocks in the nation's history. As a result, natural gas is now trading at six times the price it did three years ago.
The cause of this crisis is the failure to enact a national energy policy that restores balance to energy markets. The chemical industry is the nation's largest user of natural gas and is acutely sensitive to irrational volatility in gas prices. Natural gas is much more than just a fuel to heat homes and offices. Chemical companies convert billions of dollars of natural gas into hundreds of billions of dollars of goods that are used by everybody, everyday. Congress must take urgent action to head off an economic catastrophe. The Council is calling on Congress to enact the following policies:
-- The U.S. must increase domestic production of natural gas. Recent legislative, regulatory and market trends have placed greater demands on our natural gas supply without providing for commensurate measures to increase production.
-- Congress must reject initiatives to place moratoria on responsible new exploration and production. It also must open new, promising areas to exploration and production.
-- Congress also should take action to enable timely increases in the amount of natural gas that is imported to the U.S. via pipelines, particularly from Canada, and in the form of liquefied natural gas.
-- Congress also should ensure that ample supplies of natural gas can be delivered to the customer. It should recognize fundamental changes in the energy industry are limiting the ability to capitalize and finance high-risk infrastructure projects to deliver natural gas. Federal policies should not exacerbate this capital liquidity problem.
-- Congress should support federal efforts to streamline natural gas pipeline construction to enable gas to enter the mid-continent and Northeastern markets.
-- Congress should encourage the expanded use of highly efficient combined heat and power (CHP) generation systems.
-- Congress and the Administration should advance development of electric power production from clean coal technologies to take advantage of our nation's natural energy resources.
(full statement at the link above)
Black Blade: That about nails it. US industry is in dire straights due to rising energy costs and consumers are forced to spend more on energy than other necessities and frivolous items adding more pressure to struggling retailers. I have been predicting this for a couple of years now. As long as consumers and US industry scream "uncle" for action the US government will likely amend some of the looney regulatory restrictions and failed energy policies of past administrations allowing access to domestic petroleum rich lands. Even so, prices will remain high as we progress toward next winter presumable with more cold weather along with inadequate storage as there simply is not enough time or drill rigs available for meeting the nation's growing energy needs. Then there are not enough pipelines or pipeline capacity either due to years of unrelenting NIMBY and fringe environmental opposition. A severe energy crisis and deepening economic recession is a lock! Get prepared as best you can and protect those investments portfolios with Gold and Silver investment insurance. An increase in your precious metals position would be a "very good" idea about now.
Simply Me (2/26/03; 01:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98421)
Recent CB gold sale a positive for the gold price
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
Latest from Jim Sinclair:
<snip>
Large, single-priced, off-market sales actually work as an invitation to major bullish interests because they provide a welcome. That welcome is the ability to buy large amounts of physical gold at singular prices, usually discounted, away from the market. Rather than depressing the trend, they sustain the trend by permitting a significant increase in position by those entities that are responsible for the trend in the first place.
<unsnip>
FYI
simply
Simply Me (2/26/03; 00:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 98420)
Precious metal lease rates under upward pressure
These figures are from a rival site...so I will not post a link. If anyone knows a different source for this info, please post it.
Current Lease Rates
Gold...1mo. 0.24%, 2mo. 0.24%, 3mo. 0.24%, 6mo. 0.39%, 1yr. 0.58%
Silver...1mo. 0.84%, 2 mo. 0.84%, 3mo. 0.84%, 6mo. 0.84%, 1yr. 0.88%
Platinum in backwardation:
1mo. 14.34%, 2mo. 14.34%, 3mo. 14.34%, 6mo. 12.34%, 1yr. 11.38%
If the precious metals blow-up is to be covered by war, then GB better get started 'cause the precious metals pot is beginning to boil.
simply
Black Blade (2/26/03; 00:16:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 98419)
Record U.S. natgas prices punish manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030225/energy_usa_manfacturing_1.html
Snippit:
SAN FRANCISCO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Record high U.S. natural gas prices are boosting manufacturers' operating costs, hitting profits and forcing some companies to move production overseas where gas is cheaper, analysts say. An interest group representing some of the nation's biggest chemical companies, among them Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), warned Congress on Tuesday that high gas prices were having a "devastating impact" on the $460 billion-a-year chemical industry. "We cannot compete at these gas prices. We trade in global commodity markets" where foreign producers have access to much cheaper gas prices, Jim McVaney of the American Chemistry Council (ACC) said in an interview with Reuters.
For every one-dollar rise in gas prices over the course of a year, the chemical industry, the largest U.S. industrial gas consumer, is hit with about $1 billion in added costs, the ACC said. Market analysts say inventories, a critical supply source that meets up to 20 percent of gas use during periods of high demand, will end the winter at record low levels, setting the stage for high prices again next year. The high gas prices come as the nation's manufacturers, hardest hit by last year's recession, labor to pull themselves out of the worst economic downturn in decades. "We're alarmed that our worst fears of gas prices are coming true," said Mark Whitenton of the National Association of Manufacturers, a Washington-based industry group. "High energy prices are not the way to build a foundation for a robust economic recovery," he said. Longer term, energy analysts worry about the growing gap between rising demand for gas -- especially from new power plants -- and what the nation's aging fields can provide.
Black Blade: As I have been saying – "Scratch any hope of an economic recovery" because there won't be one.
Mr Gresham (2/26/03; 00:00:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98418)
Ray Patten
I know what you mean by that, but their larger idea was of the long-term plan to create the Euro. I just don't see how selling half the gold reserves fit that plan. The necessity of some dollar support, maybe. But at that cost?
It does fit better your description of the "modern" bankers giving up the national treasure at just the wrong time. That's why I wonder if two different banking philosophies were mixing, or not, like oil and water. And, perhaps, the longer-viewing "statesmen" of freegold banking were allowing the younger ones their run, since it was unpreventable, and since it was buying them some time, and allowing the dollar to become more unstable?
The middle possibility here is that A/FOA were telling teh story as the plan being told to them, and being optimistic about it. Naturally not knowing the obstacles or countermeasures it might encounter. So -- we were getting an insider's viewpoint that almost no one else in the world was allowed to read -- fascinating! -- but one not necessarily guaranteed 100% success.
Hope we can read the full story someday.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
