Why should YOU buy gold from Centennial?
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/7/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Goldfly
(05/07/02; 23:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 75160)
But what about spot?
Anyway according to my calculations, a gold futures contract could close at not quite $5 million/ounce tomorrow.
Oooh. That's making my scalp tingly.
Goldfly
(05/07/02; 23:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75159)
Hmmmm.... This too.
http://www.nymex.com/markets/cont_all.cfm?CID=15&cont_name=specs
This part:
Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation
Futures: Initial price limit, based upon the preceding day's settlement price is $75 per ounce. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trades in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading.
Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time.
When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%.
Options: No price limits.
Goldfly
(05/07/02; 23:32:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 75158)
Golly, this was interesting...
http://www.nymex.com/rulebook/6.htm#09
Rule 6.09. MAXIMUM PRICE VARIATIONS
The Board may provide, at any time, by Rule or resolution that there shall be no trading during any one business day or trading session day in any commodity for futures delivery in any specified month or months at prices more than a fixed limit above or below the settlement price for the preceding business day. At the discretion of the Board, any limitation provided in this Rule §6.09 may be changed or suspended or temporarily modified from time to time and without prior notice. Trading in options contracts shall not be subject to price fluctuation limitations.
goldquest
(05/07/02; 23:22:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 75157)
Worth a re-read
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/howederivatives.html
JPM should have heeded this commentary back then!
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 23:06:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 75156)
New Coalition, Citing Natural Gas Reserve Report, Warns of Supply Crunch Due To Unwarranted Price Volatility
http://199.97.97.163/IMDS%PMANAT0%read%/home/content/users/imds/feeds/comtex/2002/05/07/pr/0000-1225-dc-coalition-supply
Snippit:
"We all must be very careful not to fall into a false sense of security; as a result of unwarranted price volatility, U.S. gas supplies are very much at risk," said Arthur Corbin, president of the Coalition for Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (EMIT) and president and general manager of the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia. "A careful reading of the AGA report reveals that the top 30 companies that hold half of U.S. natural gas reserves did not add enough reserves in 2001 to replace production, even though the average price they received for their gas was over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet, well above historical averages."
Private investment banker and energy industry analyst Matthew R. Simmons, Chairman and President of Simmons & Company International, cautioned that the AGA report "could create a very false sense that things are well in natural gas just as the country's daily supply is poised to drop by what could be a genuinely tragic surprise."
Simmons said, "Every American should now be aware that the exploration and production industry embarked on the greatest drilling boom for more gas supplies in U.S. history during 2000 and 2001, shattering the prior record of gas wells completed in 1981 by over 1,000 more wells -- yet daily gas supply stayed flat. The drilling boom peaked at the end of last summer. Drilling for gas has now dropped 45 percent, which is just starting to be felt in daily gas production. By the time the country experiences the full impact of this drilling collapse, daily supplies could drop by 10 percent or higher."
Black Blade: We will likely see an energy supply crunch late this year or early next year. Reserves are not being replenished. No economic recovery this year.
balzac
(05/07/02; 22:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 75155)
As Butch Cassidy said" Who are those guys?"
RE: J Sinclair's essay.
Can anyone tell me if Hung Fat & Dr. NO exsist in something
Other than Nom de PLume? Or we merely watching fiction?
Who are those Guys??
Balzac
YGM
(05/07/02; 21:39:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 75154)
The Fortress Of CPM Castle.....
Is a Bastion of Wisdom & Sanity.....
....And although I never brought much wisdom to the tables I've gained much, "AND" if it were not for these halls and the priviledge of roaring out my rants of indignation and outrage amongst those who educated and calmed such as I, then I fear my sanity might have been questionable...As it stands I owe more than one could ever hope to repay by thanks alone....What a good day this was, as they have been of late and shall continue to be in future. We are prepared to face the future as few percieve it to be....
Many here will look back on this adventure many years hence and be wistful of past challenges met and battles fought and won......This is just another time and chapter in the great history book of GOLD!.....YGM
slingshot
(05/07/02; 21:16:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 75153)
sector
Just one more laugh
I drew a picture of a trebuchet before I knew what it was called and went around asking, Do you know what this is called? My favorite answer. I don't know, what is it?
Good Night All
Slingshot-------------<>
Aristotle
(05/07/02; 20:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 75152)
Sector on Kaplan
The best take on Kaplan's comments that I've yet to hear were posted in the small hours of today.
Andúril (05/07/02; 01:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 75071)
I think his point is well made. These are the words of a dying man.
If indeed the Gold chapter of JP Morgan's derivatives book goes down in flame, what do you think that will do to the confidence in counterparty performance not just the OTC Gold derivatives, but the exchange-traded COMEX ones as well?
Would anyone in their right mind be a buyer of COMEX futures???! Can a market survive under conditions of ASK/NO BID? No... I thought not.
Real Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Arcticfox
(05/07/02; 20:49:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 75151)
And so it continues... I wonder what Sharon's response will be??
WASHINGTON (AP) - Hurrying home after a suicide attack killed more than a dozen people in Israel, an enraged Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon declared Tuesday there was no way to move forward on Mideast peace with a Palestinian Authority that he called a "terrorist and corrupt entity."
Sharon, cutting short his visit to Washington after the attack, vowed to keep up Israel's campaign to stop Palestinian terror attacks.
"Our work is not done," he declared. "The battle continues and will continue until all those who believe that they can make gains through the use of terrorism will cease to exist - cease to exist," the prime minister declared in a hastily called news conference before leaving for Israel.
Without mentioning Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat by name, a bitter Sharon declared that the attack provided "proof of the true intentions of the person leading the Palestinian Authority." Sharon has been resisting entreaties from President Bush to negotiate with Arafat to get the Arab-Israeli peace process on track.
Sharon, who learned of the bombing during an Oval Office meeting with Bush, declared over and over that those who support or fund or perpetrate terrorism are "guilty, guilty." Earlier in Sharon's visit to Washington, the Israeli government presented U.S. officials with a dossier laying out what it said was evidence that Arafat was a sponsor of terrorism against Israel, a charge the Palestinians denied.
"Israel will not surrender to blackmail," Sharon declared. "Israel will not surrender to blackmail."
He said the Israeli military offensive against militants in Palestinian towns and villages had made great strides in rooting out the terrorist infrastructure but that the job clearly was not done.
"He who rises up to kill us, we will pre-empt and kill him first," he said.
Sharon, speaking first in Hebrew and then in English, said he was departing for Israel "with a heavy heart - heavy with grief and heavy with rage."
He said it was "the rage of each and every Jew in the world."
The address was carried live on television in both Israel and the United States.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAEHMNKY0D.html
slingshot
(05/07/02; 20:49:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 75150)
sector
trebuchet
Thank you sector. Yes truly a marvel of its time. I just could not remember the name.
Two designs were one with a solid counterbalance mostly made of lead. The other design had a wooden basket or box.
Range and accuracy determined by adding or decreasing weight to counterbalance'size of projectile(stone) or adjusting lenght of the sling.Not a nice thing to see if you lived in a castle.
I'm going to have to write that down.;O)
Thanks again
Slingshot
mikal
(05/07/02; 20:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75149)
@Slingshot Re: Siege
ROFLMAO! Encore! Encore! Silver Feather gazed upward, her attention fixed on the golden pall radiating from the rising moon. This is a special juncture, she knew, occurring only when the elements are at a peak of harmony. The wolves howls seemed to rise in tandem, calling "TOOoo DAAaa MOOoon" She drew her slingshot from its sheath, and let the moonlight fall upon it, singing, and rejoicing.
sector
(05/07/02; 20:37:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75148)
@slingshot...About the seige engine
It's called a trebuchet...and it works a little like your handle throwing a 250 pound stone ball 800 feet.
eom
sector
(05/07/02; 20:34:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 75147)
Leonard Kaplan...A Babbling Brook of Wierdness
The Prospector Report May 5
"...We are also seeing that the old-time investors in gold are actually selling into this rally, and not much physical buying is occurring. When investor interest in physical gold is high, premiums on gold coins rise. Even as gold continues to make 2-year highs, premiums on gold coins such as US Eagles remain quite low and well below replacement costs at the US Mint. Perhaps even a better example is the sad case of US $20 Liberty Head gold coins in XF/AU condition (slightly circulated). These numismatic coins, which were minted from the 1850's to 1907 (now almost at least 100 years old), are trading in the market for just $15 to $25 USD (each coin contains .9675 oz. of pure gold) above their precious metal melt content, probably as low a premium as has been seen since the 1970's. This fact would certainly infer that "old-time" investors are selling as new investors are buying. But the new investors are seeking investment venues with greater transparency, greater leverage, and greater security, and are shunning the old investment vehicles such as coins.
I would expect that this trend will continue, to the financial detriment of those owners of physical gold coins and bars. I urge readers of this commentary, who hold physical coins, to call our offices (afternoons are best) for a discussion of possible strategies to avoid further losses. Historically, on many sharp gold rallies, such coins have traded at or below spot, and if gold continues to rally, as many analysts and I foresee, gold coins may continue to lose value in relation to their gold content. ..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++
What is this bozo talking about? Did I miss something?
I bought some American Eagles in the fall at a delivered price of $280 The margin has risen to at least 3% since and of course there's the pog at $312. I think of it as undeveloped real estate in a prime area…an emergency fuel supply should the incompetent government do what we all know they are going to do.
Occasionally Kaplan makes a modicum of sense when speaking about bullion bank matters...then this latest rant comes along.
He speaks of transparency in COMEX paper? Who are the COMEX longs, by name? The TOCOM lists them for all to see. For example anyone can see that Mitsui, Sumitomo and Mitsubishi are all short gold in open interest by 96% to 99% of all contracts and all have been that way for years. Nobody stakes out lop-sided futures position like these without an official backer...most likely the BOJ. Get rich in COMEX gold futures…buy from Leonard…none of that untrustworthy physical…there's no leverage.
So the learned Mr. Kaplan wishes us to believe that the paper COMEX is as good as the real thing in hand...as if the TOCOM really DIDN'T default a few years back on it's platinum contracts. More than a few people have suggested that the COMEX will default on its gold contracts when it becomes clear that the shorts [Read JPM, Goldman Sachs et, al.] don't HAVE the gold. But don't worry… one will receive perfectly good paper from the COMEX…less a bit of leverage, of course.
Kaplan might as well wear a cardboard sandwich for the cabal. What a worthless shill.
Pizz
(05/07/02; 20:31:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75146)
JPM
Now I know why JPM puts were unusually strong today.
Might be a bit interesting in the morning.
Pizz
slingshot
(05/07/02; 20:25:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75145)
Seige Engine
Gold to DA MOOOOON
After a day and a half of bombardment to his refuge ,the Lord of the castle wanted to look at the damage being inflicted. He was confident his fortress would withstand the assault for some time untill he peered over the wall. What he saw was a flaw in the construction The builders had made it thick by building two thin walls and filling the space between them with discarded material. As long as the outer remained intact the fill stayed in place. Now, as the Goldbugs and their machine have pierced the outer part of the wall, the fill is pouring out making a ramp even before the tower falls. He knows now time is short and calls his Knights to plan his defense.
Canuck
(05/07/02; 20:13:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 75144)
Enron memos reveal plans
http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?tf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory2.html&cf=tgam%2Fsearch%2Ftgam%2FSearchFullStory.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam%2Fconfig&encoded_keywords=enron&option=&start_row=5¤t_row=5&start_row_offset1=0&search_results_start=1&num_rows=1
The memos FERC obtained and released yesterday detail strategies such as "Inc-ing," in which Enron would submit unrealistic trading schedules to create "phantom congestion" on the power grid administered by the California Independent System Operator (ISO).
Enron would receive payments from the ISO to relieve the phantom congestion the company's traders had created. The memos also discuss a strategy known as "Death Star," in which Enron would receive payments from the ISO "to relieve congestion without actually moving any energy or relieving any congestion," FERC said.
The memos also discuss Enron's strategy for "laundering" electricity to avoid the power price caps in the electricity spot markets administered by the ISO and the now-defunct California Power Exchange.
The megawatt-laundering, which Enron called "ricocheting," involved moving power out of California to neighbouring states where the price caps didn't apply, and then reselling that power back into the California ISO at prices above the cap that applied only to in-state transactions.
Other strategies had colourful names such as "Get Shorty" and "Fat Boy," which, along with the "Death Star" strategy, sound eerily akin to the names Enron gave its questionable off-the-balance-sheet partnerships that forced the company into bankruptcy late last year.
Arcticfox
(05/07/02; 20:10:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75143)
So much for free markets...check out this graph tonight!
http://www.astrikos.com/public/japan.html
Where will it end when you have a situation where you have a government propping up their domestic markets, increasing their money supply by 50% in two months and promoting a week currency to export deflation to a country with a 30% overvalued currency which will soon be approaching a 6% trade deficit? Gotta "luv" Au...
USAGOLD
(05/07/02; 20:01:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 75142)
YGM. . .All. . .
When I said a few months ago that we were "one Enron away from the greatest gold bull market in history," I meant it. Who did I have in mind as that "one Enron?" JP Morgan and Dinsa Mehta. If this information is correct (and there's enough smoke blowing around the gold market to think that it just might be), this is the biggest development for gold in a long time. I believe that JPMorgan and Dinsa Mehta were at the center of the derivatives programs aimed at keeping a lid on the gold market. If Bill Murphy's sources are correct -- if we indeed are looking at the possible collapse of the JP Morgan gold department and the bank itself -- this has substantial implications for the gold market but Wall Street itself. We need verification of this news. Perhaps a call to Mr. Mehta at Morgan/Chase is in order. It would be interesting to settle the question whether or not he's still on the job. If he has indeed lost his job, it might explain the wild scramble going on behind the scenes in the gold market -- the hedge buy-backs, the merger rumors, indeed to some of us, the palpable smell of fear. It would also explain gold moving as it has without visible opposition. As for the short side of the gold market, it may have come down to every man for himself. If so, once the hedge funds get the smell of blood in the water, you could very well see gold move up $100, $200 in a blink. And, too, if JP Morgan and Mehta are out of the game, the wild scramble will begin for physical gold -- the newly Holy Grail for the gold world. Another and FOA are going to proven correct, my friends, and this is not hyperbole or a sales pitch. . . . ..
YGM
(05/07/02; 19:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 75141)
I'm Still Doing My Part..... (even if it is repititious)
Sending the GATA E-mail and James Sinclairs Article......
to every doggoned bullion traders/media desk on my mailing list.....And it's a long list!!!!
& Thanks to Arcticfox for the heads up on that article too!
Getting even does and always will have a measure of satisfaction, no matter how small the payday....7 years I've waited for the derivatives trade to collapse. What's another few months?
Siochain
(05/07/02; 19:50:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 75140)
@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo
I would concur with the previous posts re negative impact of oil embargo. Although my last trip to Japan was four years ago, oil concerns were still high on their fear list.
Additionally, doing the roaring years of Japan economy when they thought they were becoming Economic Power #1, banks pursued offering very high risk loans with little to no collateral.....potential for growth was the criteria.
This practice later hit the banks hard as many of these companies later folded as the economy softened....yet from what I understand the banks still sought to keep up their loan portfolios with even higher risks....a nasty spiral.
Should an embargo impact Japan's industries, there is little doubt in my mind that will push many more companies to bankruptcy and the banks in turn
One curious thought though is whether any US or foreign banks are getting involved with their Japanese counterparts
I mentioned awhile ago that one of my very close relatives has put together some very lucrative takeovers of Japanese Insurance Companies
I asked him tonight if banks were also doing so though he didn't know specifically ....he said he wouldn't be surprised since Japan was desperate and was offering some sweetheart deals.
My reason for raising the question of whether US Banks are getting involved in Japan banking would be a possible double whammy should Japan sink....though if they are...I'd love to see the deals made
Though IMO, if push comes to shove, I would expect that Japan would willing make any deal including getting rid of US notes in order to secure oil
YGM
(05/07/02; 19:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 75139)
View Entire GATA Email Re: Morgan @ Link
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099
I should have waited 5 more min....Sorry for losin my cool here....YGM.
Chris Powell
(05/07/02; 19:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 75138)
Morgan's gold derivatives department has lost control
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099
Morgan Chase gold derivatives department's loss
of control of the gold price is threatening the
entire banking house.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1099
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
YGM
(05/07/02; 19:36:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 75136)
Excerpt from MIDAS Report @ the Cafe.......JP Morgan Chase etc.
Everyone knows how to get there I'm sure........
***Here's hoping this doesn't get me in trouble, but my excitement is too much to bear....This is part of the Cartel that cost me $350K & a wife....So s---- Them...
Excerpt...
J.P. Morgan Chase Gold Department In Serious Trouble
This morning I received a phone call from the best of sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan people that they have "lost control of the gold market and that the gold derivative department was a mess." The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P. Morgan Chase (the bank itself) might not make it through the year. They suggested my source buy $330 Feb gold calls.
Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks:
*There is an investigation now being conducted on the gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase.
*The man who ran the department was fired.
*This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was called "still a rumor" by the CNBC host.
*It appears the conspiracy guys were right all along.
A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?
Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me he hears Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts when Reg Howe revealed their OCC gold derivative position a couple of years ago. He called in his accountants, etc, to find out how that happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis document. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell and I presented that document to the Speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. Then, I delivered it to every member of the House and Senate banking committees the following day.
Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had to say.
This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim Sinclair have alerted Café members to:
*The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.
*A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.
*Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.
*The price of gold is going to explode.
*There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.
The Gold Cartel, Working Group on Financial Markets and the Fed must all be in a state of sheer panic over gold. There is a feeling by some in the GATA camp that they will orchestrate a massive bailout - like request the IMF to sell their gold. Anything is possible, but to do anything now might be sheer folly and tip their hand that GATA was right all along. Why should anyone care if gold goes to $400 or $500, much less $350? All that would do is be a boon for the sub-Saharan Africa, a bonanza for their economies. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee's credibility is very good in Africa. If The Gold Cartel comes up with some trumped up reason to sell gold, I shall try and see some of the leaders of the gold producing countries and point out what has been done to them and why. I shall refocus their attention on the following matter (courtesy of the Charleston Voice):
"GO GATA" "GO GATA" "GO GATA" & GO PHYSICAL!!!!!
BUY ALL CPM'S GOLD & LEAVE NONE FOR THE CROOKS!
Cavan Man
(05/07/02; 19:32:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 75135)
Hey Rich
Those harmful actions are corruption; get it? Good luck with your beliefs. I don't know about you but I am going to need it (luck). Right on with your thoughts and shalom...CM
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 19:26:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 75134)
Jittery investors spur gold to new highs
http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/05/07/rtr593865.html
Snippit:
LONDON, May 7 (Reuters) - Gold jumped to its highest in more than two years on Tuesday as the dollar floundered and the outlook for equity markets appeared grim, sending investors scrambling for a haven for their cash. A weaker dollar and faltering U.S. stock markets had restored gold's role as a haven in times of trouble, traders said. "While the U.S dollar remains weak, it is hard to see gold correcting," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Warburg. The dollar hit fresh two-month lows against the yen and seven-month troughs on both the euro and Swiss franc on Tuesday.
The dollar was weighed down in part by a sell-off on Wall Street overnight, triggered by a dismal economic and earnings outlook and expectations the Federal Reserve would not lift interest rates at its policy meeting today. A weak U.S. currency makes gold cheaper for overseas investors and jewellery makers and less attractive in local terms for foreign gold mining companies to sell. "Investors appear more concerned with finding a safe haven for their wealth given the prevailing volatile political situation in the Middle East and uncertainty in the financial markets," Standard Bank's London metals team said in a report.
Black Blade: Looks good for Gold.
R Powell
(05/07/02; 19:24:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 75133)
Cavan Man
Reread your post and note your use of the word "especially". This is part of the problem.
I have no problem with most humanitarian teachings of most religions. They are quite similar.
Religion, as manifested in harmful actions and as the justification for these is what I object to.
Has there ever been a soldier in any war, at any time who didn't have at least one god on his side? For god and country! Any god and every country.
I'll let you have the last word after this as I'm off topic other than saying that IMHO there will be no lasting peace or secure oil source in our time. In this regard, safe haven for wealth storage will be a lasting issue. Why would anyone want to hold dollars in the middle-east?
Rich
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 19:12:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75132)
The Glitter of Gold
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29693082&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:
Gold is more interesting today than it has been at any time since the late '70s, when it was allowed to trade freely again in the United States. Back then (1977, to be precise), it started at $75. The gold bug crew made a strong case that it was worth $300 an ounce. Instead, the metal blasted through $300 and peaked at $800, when it made the cover of Money magazine.
Back then, the fear behind the rise was galloping inflation, the prospect of Saudi Arabia buying everything on the New York Stock Exchange (no kidding, someone calculated how long it would take), and worries there would be no recycling of the billions of "petrodollars" we exported in exchange for OPEC oil.
Today, the fears are different, but related. Here are the pillars that support the case for gold:
Gold production is sagging while demand is rising.
Central banks have sold about as much gold as they dare sell.
A rising supply of dollars in foreign hands.
A trade deficit that won't go away.
The dollar is overvalued.
Gold is the alternative to the dollar: the euro and the yen don't qualify.
Low real rates of interest.
Global financial weakness and worry.
While gold has traditionally been a haven in times of angst, we've been through all kinds miserable events in the last 20 years, and gold has neither spiked nor soared. Until recently.
Now, gold is over $300, and people are buying once again. Japanese families are buying. The Chinese government is buying. And you can bet it is still being accumulated in the Middle East.
Put it all together and a good case can be made for $500-an-ounce gold, with plenty of room for a major anxiety spike. My favorite rule of thumb is called the "good man's suit" rule -- an ounce of gold should be enough to buy a good man's suit. By that measure, gold should be selling at more than $600. It could easily be twice that, without considering Oxxford or Brioni.
Black Blade: The tide has turned and Gold is just about the only sector left as this economy "recovers" (according to Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls).
Arcticfox
(05/07/02; 19:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75131)
Jim Sinclair mentioned here again...
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=DROOY&read=9977
I hope it's alright to send readers to this site. I think the read may be worth it.
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 18:57:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 75130)
Office vacancy climbs to 19%
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/bayarea/business/3213127.htm
Snippit:
Bay Area commercial real estate has continued to nose-dive this year, logging the highest office vacancy rates in more than a decade and causing rents to slide steeply. The overall office vacancy rate reached 19 percent in the first quarter of 2002 -- higher than during the 1990-91 recession, according to a report by BT Commercial Real Estate.
Black Blade: Economic recovery eh? Hmmm…
Canuck
(05/07/02; 18:55:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 75129)
@ YGM, sector,all
As a preamble to the GATA release forthcoming this evening I draw attention to Cabal_Breaker's 20:02 message over at G-E.
Tks to CB
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 18:50:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 75128)
Post Office to Cut 8,000 More Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&ncid=703&e=9&u=/ap/20020507/ap_on_go_ot/postal_finances_2
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (AP) - More than 8,000 additional full-time jobs will be cut by the Postal Service this year as the agency struggles to contain its losses in the face of declining business.
Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. I work to help out the Post Office myself. When I get "junk mail" with a postage paid return envelope I write a "no thanks" on the insert and then I cram as much weighty junk into the envelope as possible. This way the offending mailer has to pay for the postage (and therefore helping out the cash-strapped Post Office) and I get rid of a lot of garbage. Also, those cards for subscriptions, junk, etc. I just send those in to with a return address to some local politician, city official or local police officer at their place of work. This also helps out the Post Office as they not only get paid by the offending mailer, but the offending mailer gets to pay to mail out more junk to someone else. Hey, I am only doing my part to give the Post Office a helping hand. So pull together now and help keep a mailman emplyed.
Cavan Man
(05/07/02; 18:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 75127)
R Powell
No, The Lord wishes we would practice what we preach. "Religion" is not the problem; people are who are unknowingly in league with satan. "Religion", especially the Christian "religion" is the answer. It is ALL summed up thusly:
1. Love God.
2. Love your neighbor.
#1 and #2 cover everything--everything.
YGM
(05/07/02; 18:29:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75126)
JP Morgan Chase.......
Sounds like they're toast.......
I'm not sure if I can post lemetropolecafe link here so I'll wait for GATA email release....This "IS SOME STORY" Morgan is way under water w/ Gold Shorts.....Ya Hoo!
More vindication for GATA supporters and believers!
Black Blade
(05/07/02; 18:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 75125)
Moscow bans foreigners from visiting resource-rich regions
Moscow (dpa) - In a revisitation of Soviet-era restrictions on foreigners' movements, the Russian government imposed a travel ban on another "strategically important" region in the country's resource- rich north, the Itar-Tass news agency reported Tuesday.
The upper part of the Yamal-Nenets region is now only accessible to foreigners with special permission from the FSB Federal Security Service. The area holds some of Russia's largest oil and gas fields. The measure follows a similar ban imposed last November to the nickel-producing town of Norilsk in the Arctic circle. Local airlines may no longer sell foreigners tickets to these areas without FSB approval.
Russia has become increasingly sensitive about access to its natural resources. Last month the government also classified information about the country's reserves of crude oil and some rare metals as a state secret. Revealing state secrets carries up to four years imprisonment.
Black Blade: This is interesting news. Note that Russia has been buying its own Gold production for central bank reserves for some time now, the PGM stockpiles are depleted and deliveries to western markets are sporadic at best, and the Caspian Sea oil production has not lived up to expectations. Something is going on. I emailed a couple of my contacts to see if they know what's going on. I haven't heard back yet, though my friend Sergei has been saying that the PGM stockpiles were raided during the 1998 Russian Bond default for "hard currency" and all subsequent deliveries have been from currnt production at Norilsk Nickel and other smaller by-product operations.
R Powell
(05/07/02; 18:21:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75124)
Middle East Peace?
A serious breakdown in the peace process?
Michael, this implies that some progress or hope of progress preceeded the breakdown. Other than the politics of pomp and circumstance or the ongoing verbal assurances by both sides that each is guiltless and each wants peace, was anything at all accomplished that could breakdown?
With any measureable degree of honesty, both sides would vocalize spit and venom at the other that would make a viper envious. At the risk of sounding callous, perhaps a no holds barred war would create enough misery so that both sides would come to welcome and appreciate peace enough to accept that peace requires compromise and commitment. Both sides have legimate grievances and pain but neither side apparently has traveled far enough beyond feelings of indignation, righteous hatred and religious fervor to approach the effort necessary for peace (co-existance). Imagine there's no heaven.....I wish there were no religions. I imagine that the good Lord wishes the same.
Rich
slingshot
(05/07/02; 18:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 75123)
Silver
Poor Mans Gold
The POG has been holding its own and I believe some of the attention has overflowed into the physical buying of silver.
Today at the coin dealer I asked for 100 ozs in silver. He
then asked his assistant if he had 100ozs. of silver. There was some discussion which contained phrases like "I don't know" and "We sold a large amount lately". I was looking at the, you snooze, you loose syndrome. Yet they managed to fill my order. I asked the coin dealer how was his sales in silver.
He stated that the average sales is between 100 and 300 ozs.
and sales are getting heavier.
Guess the buyers are beating the tax below $500.00 sales.
To note, I remember when a large sale was 20 to 30 ozs.
Yes, his premium was slightly higher.
Just had to smile on the ride home. :)
Slingshot
mikal
(05/07/02; 18:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 75122)
@USAGOLD Re: Oil Embargo
@USAGOLD "the affect on Japanese banks"- That could be the lynchpin in a new physical gold market. Such an embargo would devastate Nippon industries, leaving waves of debt defaults and bank failures mitigated only by repatriation of US dollar holdings, and sale of US equities, bonds, real estate, and/or factories. The dollar affects would be direct and indirect, worldwide, impacting every aspect of commerce and industry.
Boilermaker
(05/07/02; 18:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 75121)
Japanese Energy Overview
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/japan.html
Michael,
Here's a brief rundown of the Japanese energy mix. Clearly they are more dependent on imports on a percentage compared to the US but their relative energy efficiency helps to offset that disadvantage. Can't say how it affects the banking sector.
Japanese Energy
Japan lacks significant domestic sources of energy and must import substantial amounts of crude oil, natural gas, and other energy resources, including uranium for its nuclear power plants. In 1999, the country's dependence on imports for primary energy stood at more than 79%. Oil provided Japan with 52% of its total energy needs, coal 15%, nuclear power 15%, natural gas 13%, hydroelectric power 4%, and renewable sources 1.3%. About half of Japan's energy is used by industry and about one-fourth by transportation, with nearly all the rest used by the residential, agricultural, and service sectors. Japan's energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) is among the lowest in the developed world.
OIL
Japan contains almost no oil reserves of its own (59 million barrels of proven oil reserves), but is the world's second largest oil consumer (after the United States). In 2001, Japan consumed an estimated 5.44 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil, down from 5.53 million bbl/d in 2000. Most (75%-80%) of this oil came from OPEC, particularly Persian Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran. Japan has worked -- with relatively little success -- to diversify its oil import sources away from the Middle East. Another oil supplier to Japan is China, which, while it is a net oil importer, supplies light oil from its Daqing field for use in Japanese power plants. Until 1996, when Japan's oil consumption peaked at nearly 5.9 million bbl/d, Japanese oil consumption (and imports) had been growing steadily for years. After 1997, Japan's oil consumption declined as its economic slump caused demand by industrial and other users to decline.
USAGOLD
(05/07/02; 16:39:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 75120)
Anyone. . .
Do we have a credible read on how an oil embargo might affect Japan's banks? Any direct connection, in other words, between the health of Japanese banks and the MidEast crisis? Obviously, anything that would induce further Japanese private gold demand would be of interest. Any articles? Studies? Etc. Japan imports 100% of its oil. Add that to the fact, that my initial take on the Sharon meetings is that we have had a serious breakdown in the peace process. Hopefully, we haven't hit the wall, but what if we have?
Waverider
(05/07/02; 16:14:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 75119)
Gold's Best Performance Since 1993 Attracts Investors
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APNg6dRXBR29sZCdz
Snippit:(Bloomberg)
"Gold is having its best year since 1993, trading at two-year highs above $300 an ounce and providing investors with returns that outpace stocks and bonds.
Gold futures traded in New York have risen 12 percent this year. Prices are up 7.5 percent since mid-March, compared with a 7.3 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the same period. A prolonged slump in stock and bond markets might send gold above $400 an ounce for the first time since the 1987 stock market crash, some traders say."
Aristotle
(05/07/02; 15:34:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 75118)
Stating the obvious
Thanks to the internet dissemination of non-traditional highly educational facilities exemplified by none better than USAGOLD, I can't imagine that there is anyone actively participating in any facet of the Gold market these days who isn't fully aware of the virility (for lack of a better word) of their investment choices.
The key to a brighter future is to be found in the process of continuing education for young and old alike. With new births every day, each generation must learn from zero, while for us older codgers, we know the world always changes today such that yesterday's knowledge is incrementally less applicable to tomorrow's events. I'd like to believe that it's because we're mindful toward building a better future for all that acts as the prime motivation for our vigorous give and take.
Whatever the reason, on that note, here's my latest contribution for the benefit of new arrivals, at the risk of boring the old timers.
Lots of people are (in the loose sense of the word) buying Gold these days. Just look at London's massive daily clearing numbers through the LBMA -- averaging over 500 tonnes each day throughout the latest reporting month. Wow!
(Yeah, yeah... I know it's old news to many of you.)
In New York, yesterday's trading volume of contracts through COMEX (ignoring options) ran nearly 80 tonnes, open interest hovering at 590 tonnes. Sure, there are other trading centers we could look at, but I'm trying to keep this brief. Hopefully, you get the idea that there are a lot of people "buying Gold."
But what are they paying for it? Or, more importantly, what are they, as a whole, ***getting*** for their money?
Since we're dealing with Gold, let's try to keep this in terms that are more familiar to the Gold industry as a means to help the newbies become gently introduced to the more complicated and less familiar world of finance.
So again, with all of this buying interest, what are they getting for their money?
Let's do an assay! As all refiners and miners know, the value of Gold ore (and ultimately the price that one might expect to pay or get paid for it) depends on the purity of the product. That is, "What amount of this product is the real Gold? What percent is worthless impurity?" A laboratory assessment, an assay, will answer that question.
If, for example, a one-hundred ounce lump of "Gold" assays at 2 percent pure Gold and 98% dross (garbage), then you should rightfully expect the market price of these 100-ounce lumps of "Gold" to be reflective of only the 2-ounce actual Gold content.
Imagine being among the lucky people who discovered that through a quirk in the market you could buy certain 100-ounce lumps that were priced by the market AS THOUGH they were 98 percent corrupt with impurities, and yet the 100-ounce item you could take delivery of at that discounted price was actually 100 ounces of fully refined full-bodied four-nines (.9999) Gold! Believe it or not, this is very nearly what happens when you pay the spot price for Gold and then claim the metal for personal safekeeping.
Trading statistics have shown that that vast majority of trading volume on formalized derivative instruments (such as the COMEX gold futures) are wholly paper trades independent of market connections to the physical underpinnings. Even before the explosion of market volumes through the mid and late 1990's, a study in 1993 familiar to Martin Mayer revealed that only 0.64% (scant more than half a percent) of all futures contracts were settled by physical delivery.
Additionally, here's a parallel that should get you thinking. In a study of the International Money Market , the Chicago Merc has estimated that due to the proliferation of customized Over-The-Counter arrangements, only 4% of all dollar volume of foreign exchange actually goes through standard futures and options instruments on the exchanges -- and yet they set the prices!
By extending this understanding to the trade occurring in the Gold market, much of the product being bought, sold, and traded is dominated by notional paper impurities, and the market price "per ounce" surely reflects this diluted assay. Only by taking delivery can you leverage your buying power because with each ounce you will be claiming pure Gold at a market price reflective of a highly impure specimen.
The actual role and importance of the pure Gold content within the entire "Gold" market becomes highly concentrated in your personal involvement in the market. Meanwhile, those who are complacent to hold just their leveraged paper proxies actually have NO GOLD AT ALL to show for their personal involvement in the aggregate market. In fact, they merely add to the dilution of the overall "assay" and functional price.
Maybe it will seem more compelling if I put it to you this way:
When looking at the aggregate Gold trade and its aggregate product, it is through their foolhardy purchase and acceptance of "just the impurities" in truly massive trading that actually underwrites your own ability to purchase and receive the "pure Gold portion" at the same low price Ounce per "ounce" as them. By all means, take advantage of their unintentional generosity!
Economically speaking with an eye to world events, these pathetic paper holders will likely see their own folly only during a critically important test "under fire" -- to assess the held specimen's value irrespective of price paid and promises made during its acquisition.
Such a critical assessment would reveal, for those with metallic Gold, a product that tested out and survived with the value of REAL Gold. For those with paper "Gold," their holdings would test out at 0.000, leaving the holder with a stark realization that he received none of the benefits or value of Gold for his money.
Gold. Get you some. Ching ching ching... piles and piles of coins. Wealth and liquidity for your future. --- Aristotle
Siochain
(05/07/02; 15:21:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 75117)
Bush
GWB is now giving joint press conference with Sharon....he truly looks like a deer caught in the headlights amd is clearly shook...his words are jumbled with no clarity.....all he keeps repeating is we all want peace...this is our Leader.....scary!
Graefin
(05/07/02; 15:01:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 75116)
Balzac: Productivity...
With unemployment running rampant and the threat of lay-offs, wouldn't you work harder??
- Gräfin
Siochain
(05/07/02; 14:56:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 75115)
Well ME PeaceChance is in jeoprady again
Large explosion tied to suicide bombing near TelAviv ....so far 15 reported killed...more than 30 injured...and it goes on and on....till....War
RobotGuy
(05/07/02; 14:51:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 75114)
Balzak
If they were really buying it, the market wouldn't have dropped back down today. I feel we're getting closer to getting through. We haven't heard too many anti-goldbug preachings lately have we! Why criticize something you are about to be, someone might remember!
Cheers!!
balzac
(05/07/02; 14:47:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 75113)
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.
Bloomberg Headlines:" Productivity gains fastest in 19 years"
Why does Bloomberg print this propaganda?
Productivity can't really be measured except at the cost of human stress and suffering among the unemployed.
More BLS B.S.!!!
WHEN DOES THE PHONY CHEERLEADING STOP?
Mr Gresham
(05/07/02; 14:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 75112)
HOF Nomination: miner49er (5/3/02; 06:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74821)
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/320025/default.html
Trade Settlement in Malaysia - Old Wine in New Wineskins...?
I _knew_ there was a reason why I kept an Archive window open from Friday, and finally I got a chance to read down far enough to find it.
miner49er discusses Mahathir's ideas for gold use in trade settlement, compares it to Euro ideas, and considers much about currency timelines, a la FOA.
I still need to hear more about what the Euro-makers are trying to do, and how their currency will differ from the Dollar, other than avoiding a growing list of mistakes and abuses. miner49er is thinking along these lines and pointing us toward seeing it as more than the Un-Dollar (and if we encourage him ;-) , he'll write us more pieces like this one, I betcha!!! )
sector
(05/07/02; 14:25:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 75111)
GATA Will Release a very big [Exclusive] story this evening
http://www.Lemetropolecafe.com
And it's not the Barrick/AngloGold/GoldFields rumor.
It's about the bad guys.
nickel62
(05/07/02; 14:11:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 75110)
Enron is the lit fuse that is going to open this bankster led market manipulation out into the open for the public to see!
The various scandels in the US have always been swept under the rug because too many of the politicos could keep the media and the sheeple under control. This time there are smoking guns and bleeding pensioners all over the place and no politican is going to be able to double talk his/her way out of this without having to face some furious investors/401K holders/voters come this fall. For the first time in a long time the sharks desire for blood is getting to the real criminals because they have no choice. It becomes US or them. The Democrats are trying to hang the blame on the Republicans and even the dumbest rock in the box can see that it is all of them. We live in interesting times, and maybe this time our media will have to keep covering it because the dumb beast of public opinion wants blood for being taken. Whether the grasshoppers in California or the now jobless and pensionless Anderson and Enron employees or the tens of millions of clueless NASDUCK and DOW/DOG investors, they are all awakening. Let the bloodletting begin. This tumor is going to really bleed.
YGM
(05/07/02; 13:51:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 75109)
Arcticfox (05/07/02; 04:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 75078)
Thank You ........
That was the most enlightening look into the nether world I have ever read. Hopefully it will make (the article) a long journey around the Gold Traders desks via e-mail.....YGM.
PS:
I could easily believe Mr Sinclair may even have had a lunch or two with FOA & ANOTHER!
Go Gold, Go Physical & GO GATA >>>>
nickel62
(05/07/02; 13:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 75108)
Manipulation, Conspiracy Theories????Man that Bloomberg News Service is starting to sound like a gold Bug!!!
05/07 14:55
Dynegy, Traders Fall on Concern Over Market Tampering (Update1)
By Jim Polson
Houston, May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Dynegy Inc. and other California power suppliers tumbled on concern an admission of market manipulation by Enron Corp. will broaden government inquiries, which may hurt profit, analysts said.
Dynegy plunged as much as 19 percent. Mirant Corp. and Calpine Corp., which have power plants in California, dropped as much as 14 percent.
Enron, once the biggest energy trader, drove California prices higher by creating and then `` `relieving' phantom congestion'' on the power grid, according to company memos released by federal energy regulators. California Senator Dianne Feinstein will ask the Justice Department to begin a criminal investigation of power sales, the Washington Post said.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ``is going to look at this, and they will broaden their look to include other companies,'' said RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. analyst Mark Easterbrook, who rates Dynegy ``outperform'' and owns some of the shares. ``The market is knocking down the stocks, and waiting for answers later.''
FERC is investigating whether California power sellers should refund as much as $1.5 billion after electricity prices soared in late 2000 and early last year.
Shares of Dynegy, based in Houston, fell $2.35, or 16 percent, to $12.50 in midafternoon trading after touching $12.01. They had fallen 72 percent in the past year.
Dynegy Postpones Conference
Dynegy postponed a two-day conference for analysts from late May to August in order for Chief Executive Officer Chuck Watson and other executives to meet with credit-rating services, spokesman John Sousa said.
Persuading Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Inc. to maintain Dynegy's investment-grade credit ``is our top priority,'' Sousa said.
Moody's has said it may cut Dynegy's credit rating, now its lowest investment grade, to junk.
Mirant, based in Atlanta, declined $1.43, or 13 percent, to $9.66. San Jose, California-based Calpine dropped 99 cents, or 10 percent, to $8.76.
Enron filed for bankruptcy in early December. It's facing more than a dozen investigations for inflating earnings and hiding debt.
Pizz
(05/07/02; 12:55:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 75107)
Correction to my post 75102
In my comments I refered to the marking to market of 11 billion and it should have been 11 million. Sorry, just used the wrong index finger on the keyboard.
Pizz
Pizz
(05/07/02; 12:41:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 75106)
Media spin
Listening to Sam Stoval of Standard & Poors being interviewed on WebFn. He was asked if he thought that with the FED not increasing rates, should we not see money movement into areas that would benefit from a lower dollar.
His answer was "Oh, you mean like Gold?". And the announcer kind of stammered and said something to the effect of, no, gold has already moved up.
With a little luck, the rating agencies may be the only independent force out there willing to not play the game anymore. Hope I'm not dreamin'.
Pizz
TownCrier
(05/07/02; 12:18:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 75105)
FOMC Press Release -- May 7, 2002
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2002/20020507/default.htm
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent.
The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity has been receiving considerable upward impetus from a marked swing in inventory investment. Nonetheless, the degree of the strengthening in final demand over coming quarters, an essential element in sustained economic expansion, is still uncertain.
In these circumstances, although the stance of monetary policy is currently accommodative, the Committee believes that, for the foreseeable future, against the background of its long run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.
Voting against the action: none.
nickel62
(05/07/02; 11:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 75104)
Pizz
Thanks for the very good analysis of the Cambior hedge situation. Keep it coming.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(05/07/02; 11:18:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 75103)
Here to help.
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