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Gold plunges under mysterious circumstances similar to a week ago

(USAGOLD – April 23, 2019) – Gold plunged this morning falling below the $1275 support zone to trade at $1269 – down $6 on the day.  Silver is down 22¢ at $14.81.  Once again the sharp drop occurred in the absence of significant news, at the COMEX open, involving roughly the same volume (a little over $1.5 billion in notional paper gold) and exactly one-week to the hour from the last paper dump April 16th.  We note also that the dollar moved sharply to the upside at the precisely the same moment.

Last time around, we first blamed one or more algo-based trading systems – institutional short sellers attempting to take advantage of a quiet, thinly-traded gold market. We then settled a few days later on the more likely possibility of a paper sale connected to Venezuela’s liquidation of bullion reserves.  Whether or not we will repeat the same sequence this time around remains to be seen. We must admit though to starting out in the same place we did a week ago – in a complete quandary.  Please stay tuned for further updates if more information surfaces.

Above: Chart of the COMEX open, April 16, 2019, with volumes just after the open.
Below:  Chart of the COMEX open, April 23, 2019, with volumes just after the open.

Quote of the Day
“Why does the cycle move as it does? What causes these periodic alternations, this ebb and this flow, in the national priorities? If it is a genuine cycle, the explanation must be primarily internal. Each phase must flow out of the conditions – and contradictions – of the phase before and then itself prepare the way for the next recurrence. A true cycle is self-generating. It cannot be determined, short of catastrophe, by external events. Wars, depressions, inflations may heighten or complicate moods, but the cycle itself rolls on, self-contained, self-sufficient and autonomous. . .The roots of cyclical self sufficiencylies deep in the natural life of humanity. There is a cyclical pattern in organic nature — in the tides, in the seasons, in night and day, in the systole and diastole of the human heart.” – Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Cycles of American History

Chart of the Day

Chart note: National security advisor John Bolton recently focused attention on the national debt saying that it was “a threat to the society.” The national debt now stands at over $22 trillion and nearly $1.5 trillion was added in 2018. “And that kind of threat,” he added, “ultimately has a national security consequence for it.” An obvious consequence is that interest payments eat up what might otherwise be spent on the national defense. Perhaps that is what has Mr. Bolton worried. As you can see in this final chart of our series on the national debt, there is a strong relationship between growth in the national debt and gold – one that goes all the way back to the early 1970s.





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