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by Michael J. Kosares

Note: We will post LATE DAY UPDATES when warranted, so check back late afternoon, early evening.

Gold steady over $1300 per ounce, JP Morgan sees gold over $1700 next year

USAGOLD, Friday 5-25-2018 –– Gold is steady to marginally higher in today's early going and holding ground it gained in yesterday's strong showing. It is now trading over the $1300 mark at $1305. Silver is even on the day at $16.65. The markets are juggling a number of issues as we move into the Memorial Day weekend with trade, emerging markets and geopolitics topping the list. JP Morgan says it would not be surprised if gold surpassed $1700 per ounce next year. Luis Oganes, JPM's head of currencies, commodity and emergency market research, says that the dollar's recent strength is temporary and catch-up recoveries in Japan and Europe will boost their currencies against the dollar. A weak durable good orders report is adding to gold's appeal this morning as it boosts the cautious Fed scenario.

Quote of the Day
"Two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other, while the world is watching to see which one will be caught bluffing, or if there will be a hellacious war. We can also say that if ... things go badly, it would seem that gold (more than other safe haven assets like the dollar, yen, and treasuries) would benefit." – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities (August, 2017)

Chart of the Day

Chart note: No one has been able to offer a clear explanation for the close correlation between gold and the yen, although a number of theories have been advanced. Of those, there are three worth passing along. The first is that both are considered safe havens and therefore purchased under the same circumstances. The second is that it is the result of the yen/dollar carry trade. When the carry trade ramps up, the yen and gold suffer. When it unwinds, the yen and gold benefit.  The third is that  it is the result of algorithmic trading that kicks in under certain preordained circumstances. The debate will go on as to which of the three is the most prominent and we will leave it our to readers to decide which, if any, offers the clearest explanation for this odd couple of finance. (By the way, the correlation holds up on the longer-term overlay as well. We will post that chart at a future date.)

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___________________________________________________________________________________

mk

Michael J. Kosares is the founder of USAGOLD, author of The ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold (Three editions), and editor of the firm's monthly newsletter. He has also written numerous published articles and essays on the gold market.

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1:14 pm Sun. May 27, 2018

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