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Gold Firms Intraday, Leaving Low End of Range Protected

by Peter Grant

November 21, AM
(from USAGOLD.com) --

Gold is up modestly in U.S. trading, buoyed by a softer dollar and seemingly ignoring the sharp rise in stocks. Yesterday;s low at 1273.90 provides an additional intervening barrier ahead of the range lows in gold at 1263.00/1260.10.

FedSpeak from Yellen after the close may provide some insight into the true prospects for a December rate hike. However, the minutes from the November FOMC meeting out tomorrow will likely be more valuable in that regard.

Decent to good U.S. economic data of late, reinforces market expectations that the Fed will indeed boost the Fed funds rate by another 25 bps on December 13. Fed funds futures indicate a 91.5% probability of such a move.

UBS is predicting that the dollar will have a rough 2018, particularly against the euro. This would be a perpetuation of the trend that developed this year, where the greenback fell more than 10% against the single currency.

If the dollar has a rough year, it bodes well for another good year for gold. The yellow metal is up 11.2% YTD and as we mentioned in Friday's DMR, this is the first time in 4-years that such resiliency has been seen going into year-end.
Gold has sold off into year-end for the past 4-years, premised largely on expectations of Fed tightening (either QE tapering or actual rate hikes). This year — with another rate hike decidedly on the table — gold remains resilient. The yellow metal is a mere 4.7% off the high for the year at 1357.50.
The ECB has been talking out of both sides of its mouth in recent weeks, making rumblings about tapering and then saying it intends to keep its foot on the gas. The fact that it cut monthly asset purchases, but plans to do them for longer is reflective of these mixed signals.

Opinions expressed in commentary on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product, nor should they be viewed in any way as investment advice or advice to buy, sell or hold. USAGOLD, Inc. recommends the purchase of physical precious metals for asset preservation purposes, not speculation. Utilization of these opinions for speculative purposes is neither suggested nor advised. Commentary is strictly for educational purposes, and as such USAGOLD does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information found here.

 

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